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Campaigns / Muddy Waters → Olam International Ltd.
Muddy Waters vs. Olam International Ltd.

Olam International Ltd. · SGX:O32

5 decks published between 2012-11-27 and 2013-09-02 — 151 pages, 151 analysed slides total.

initial thesis follow up

Timeline

Each deck in chronological order — click to open. This is the story of the campaign as it unfolded.

  1. 2012-11-27 initial thesis

    2012 11 MW_OLAM_11272012

    133pp · research_note

    Olam is an Enron-style agri trader whose aggressive non-cash accounting, off-the-rails CapEx binge, and 9.3x leverage mask a failing trading business — equity likely worthless, bonds 14-33¢.

    N 5 V 2 C 1
    ◫ ” ⚑
  2. 2012-11-30 follow up

    2012 11 MW_OLAM_11302012

    8pp · research_note

    Olam's 45-page rebuttal ducks Muddy Waters' real points; we'll pay S&P to rate Olam's debt and prove the market underprices its accounting and acquisition risk.

    N 4 V 2 C 2
    ” ⚑
  3. 2012-12-04 follow up

    2012 12 MW_OLAM_12042012

    3pp · research_note

    Olam's surprise $750m Temasek-backed debt raise — at an effective cost over 10% — validates Muddy Waters' thesis that the company is days from collapse; Strong Sell maintained.

    N 3 V 2 C 1
    ” ⚑
  4. 2013-02-08 follow up

    2013 02 MW_OLAM_Q22013

    4pp · research_note

    Olam's Q2 2013 results confirm Muddy Waters' Strong Sell thesis: debt is spiraling (9.5x EBITDA), cash is burning, and management's acquisitions and Gabon project reveal haphazard planning.

    N 3 V 1 C 1
    ” ⚑
  5. 2013-09-02 follow up

    2013 09 MW_OLAM_09022013

    3pp · research_note

    Ten months after our initial short, Olam's FY13 results confirm the thesis: 1.8% ROA, S$800m cash burn, ossified board, no acknowledgement of the over-leverage problem.