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Campaigns / Muddy Waters → Burford Capital Ltd.
Muddy Waters vs. Burford Capital Ltd.

Burford Capital Ltd. · BUR LN

4 decks published between 2019-08-07 and 2020-02-10 — 54 pages, 54 analysed slides total.

initial thesis follow up

Timeline

Each deck in chronological order — click to open. This is the story of the campaign as it unfolded.

  1. 2019-08-07 initial thesis

    2019 08 MW_BUR_08072019

    25pp · research_note

    Burford is a poor litigation-finance business masquerading as a great one through Enron-like fair value accounting, four-case concentration, and a CEO-wife CFO — and is arguably insolvent.

    N 5 V 2 C 2
    ” ⚑
  2. 2019-08-13 follow up

    2019 08 MW_BUR_08132019

    13pp · research_note

    Burford's rebuttal confirms it: aggressive mark-to-model fair-value gains, manipulated ROIC/IRR, and a CEO-CFO marriage make BUR an Enron-style stock promotion the FCA should investigate.

    N 4 V 2 C 1
    ” ⚑
  3. 2019-08-16 follow up

    2019 08 MW_BUR_Behavioral_Analysis_08162019

    9pp · research_note

    Muddy Waters hires ex-CIA behavioral analysts Qverity to show Burford management's rebuttal is riddled with evasion, aggression and persuasion — corroborating the original fraud thesis.

    N 4 V 1 C 1
    ” ⚑
  4. 2020-02-10 follow up

    2020 02 MW_BUR_02102020

    7pp · research_note

    Burford's dismal H2 2019 — 85% YoY collapse in realized gains, Petersen sold to its own fund, vanishing cash, and a lost Perry Ellis ruling — validates Muddy Waters' short thesis on aggressive marks and a flawed model.