Contrarian Corpus
Muddy Waters vs. Focus Media Holding Ltd.

Focus Media Holding Ltd. · FMCN

6 decks published between 2011-11-21 and 2013-01-24 — 120 pages, 120 analysed slides total.

initial thesis follow up

Timeline

Each deck in chronological order — click to open. This is the story of the campaign as it unfolded.

  1. 2011-11-21 initial thesis

    2011 11 MW_FMCN_11212011

    80pp · research_note

    Focus Media is the Olympus of China: it inflates its LCD screen count by 50%, systematically overpays for acquisitions it writes off, and enriches insiders at shareholders' expense.

    N 5 V 2 C 2
  2. 2011-11-29 follow up

    2011 11 MW_FMCN_112911_Final

    12pp · research_note

    FMCN's rebuttal concedes Muddy Waters' core claims — inflated LCD network, 1,758% theater market share, phantom VIE acquisitions, and brazen insider self-dealing make the shares un-investable.

    N 4 V 2 C 2
  3. 2011-12-09 follow up

    2011 12 MW_FMCN_Toilet Paper_120911

    12pp · research_note

    FMCN's promise to have 'reputable' Chinese firms verify its LCD network is worthless — CTR, the firm most likely to be hired, previously rubber-stamped CCME's fabricated bus network.

    N 4 V 2 C 2
  4. 2012-01-06 follow up

    2012 01 MW_FMCN_GinsengPlantation_010612

    4pp · research_note

    FMCN's bizarre acquisition of a tiny border-town ginseng plantation from its own employee is fresh evidence the 'Olympus of China' is using fake M&A to launder fake cash off its books.

    N 4 V 1 C 1
  5. 2012-02-09 follow up

    2012 02 MW_FMCN_Cardboard LCD

    9pp · research_note

    FMCN's 'independent' verification of its 185,174 LCD network counted 30,500 cardboard posters as LCDs, confirming Muddy Waters' fraud thesis and impugning all reported financials.

    N 5 V 2 C 2
  6. 2013-01-24 follow up

    2013 01 MW_FMCN_AnotherLie

    3pp · research_note

    New BVI registry evidence proves FMCN lied about its mobile-phone VIE acquisitions, reinforcing the long-running fraud thesis just as Carlyle's LBO consortium prepares to overpay.