Focus Media Holding Ltd. · FMCN
6 decks published between 2011-11-21 and 2013-01-24 — 120 pages, 120 analysed slides total.
Timeline
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2011-11-21 initial thesis
2011 11 MW_FMCN_11212011
80pp · research_noteFocus Media is the Olympus of China: it inflates its LCD screen count by 50%, systematically overpays for acquisitions it writes off, and enriches insiders at shareholders' expense.
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2011-11-29 follow up
2011 11 MW_FMCN_112911_Final
12pp · research_noteFMCN's rebuttal concedes Muddy Waters' core claims — inflated LCD network, 1,758% theater market share, phantom VIE acquisitions, and brazen insider self-dealing make the shares un-investable.
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2011-12-09 follow up
2011 12 MW_FMCN_Toilet Paper_120911
12pp · research_noteFMCN's promise to have 'reputable' Chinese firms verify its LCD network is worthless — CTR, the firm most likely to be hired, previously rubber-stamped CCME's fabricated bus network.
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2012-01-06 follow up
2012 01 MW_FMCN_GinsengPlantation_010612
4pp · research_noteFMCN's bizarre acquisition of a tiny border-town ginseng plantation from its own employee is fresh evidence the 'Olympus of China' is using fake M&A to launder fake cash off its books.
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2012-02-09 follow up
2012 02 MW_FMCN_Cardboard LCD
9pp · research_noteFMCN's 'independent' verification of its 185,174 LCD network counted 30,500 cardboard posters as LCDs, confirming Muddy Waters' fraud thesis and impugning all reported financials.
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2013-01-24 follow up
2013 01 MW_FMCN_AnotherLie
3pp · research_noteNew BVI registry evidence proves FMCN lied about its mobile-phone VIE acquisitions, reinforcing the long-running fraud thesis just as Carlyle's LBO consortium prepares to overpay.