◆ Contrarian Corpus
Campaigns / Muddy Waters → TAL Education Group
Muddy Waters vs. TAL Education Group

TAL Education Group · TAL

3 decks published between 2018-07-02 and 2018-07-25 — 29 pages, 29 analysed slides total.

follow up

Timeline

Each deck in chronological order — click to open. This is the story of the campaign as it unfolded.

  1. 2018-07-02 follow up

    2018 07 MW_TAL_Part 2_20180702

    8pp · research_note

    TAL inflated Firstleap's acquired deferred revenue by 90-175%, pumping $21-29M of fake profit through FY2017 via an above-the-line accounting lever obscured by an overlooked small acquisition.

    N 4 V 2 C 1
    ◫ ” ⚑
  2. 2018-07-23 follow up

    2018 07 MW_TAL_Part 3_20180723

    10pp · short_deck

    TAL's own Peiyou Q3 disclosures, common-sized, mathematically imply offline enrollment declined YoY — contradicting the growth narrative and signaling fabricated results.

    N 4 V 2 C 2
    ⚑
  3. 2018-07-25 follow up

    2018 07 MW_TAL_Part 4_20180725

    11pp · research_note

    TAL Education's core Peiyou business is shrinking, not 'healthy' as CFO Rong Luo claims; under every reasonable model TAL's FY2018 Q3-Q4 disclosures fail to reconcile.