◆ Contrarian Corpus
Campaigns / Muddy Waters → Sino-Forest Corporation
Muddy Waters vs. Sino-Forest Corporation

Sino-Forest Corporation · TRE

3 decks published between 2011-06-02 and 2011-06-20 — 65 pages, 65 analysed slides total. Outcome: won.

initial thesis follow up

Timeline

Each deck in chronological order — click to open. This is the story of the campaign as it unfolded.

  1. 2011-06-02 initial thesis

    2011 06 MW_TRE_060211

    40pp · research_note

    Sino-Forest is a fraud: its Authorized Intermediary structure fabricates timber revenue, its Yunnan holdings are overstated by ~$900M, and equity is worth less than $1 vs. $18.21.

    N 5 V 2 C 2
    ◫ ” ⚑
  2. 2011-06-13 follow up

    2011 06 MW_TRE_Q12011_Call_Reaction

    3pp · research_note

    TRE management's evasive Q1 call answers — unfinished E&Y review, undisclosed related parties, an unnecessary AI model, and dropped analyst questions — reinforce Muddy Waters' fraud thesis on Sino-Forest.

    N 3 V 1 C 1
    ” ⚑
  3. 2011-06-20 follow up

    2011 06 MW_TRE_Ties_That_Blind_Part1

    22pp · research_note

    Sino-Forest claims Huaihua Yuda is unrelated, but Muddy Waters shows Sonic Jita was once owned by TRE executives and still shares a key executive — undisclosed related-party transactions contradicting CEO Allen Chan's guarantees.