QuantumScape QS
QuantumScape is a $15B SPAC whose solid-state battery breakthrough is a Theranos-grade mirage; 15 experts say the science is not there and the April 24 lockup expiry will trigger an insider dump.
Thesis
Scorpion Capital is short QuantumScape (NYSE: QS), a $15B solid-state-battery SPAC trading at $40.85 that claims a breakthrough 'magic material' solving dendrites, 15-minute fast charging, and low-temperature performance. Based on interviews with 15 sources — 9 former R&D employees, 4 leading solid-state experts, and 2 members of Volkswagen's EV battery team — Scorpion argues the science is a mirage: dendrites remain unsolved, virtually all public data is from a single-layer cell rather than the 100+ layer stacks an EV pack requires, and meaningful commercialization is sometime in the 2030s. The report stacks QS against prior Khosla-backed battery flops (Sakti3, Seeo) and CEO Jagdeep Singh's only other IPO, Infinera, where top VC holders dumped 100% of their stock within five months of lockup. Scorpion expects the April 24 lockup expiry to trigger a similar insider dump.
SCQA
QuantumScape, a Silicon Valley SPAC with a $15B market cap and 188 employees, claims a breakthrough 'magic material' for solid-state EV batteries, validated by Volkswagen, Vinod Khosla, and reportedly Bill Gates.
Scorpion's 15 interviews with ex-R&D employees, solid-state experts, and VW battery team reveal the dendrite problem is unsolved, all public data is from single-layer cells, and commercialization is a decade-plus away.
Short QuantumScape ahead of the April 24, 2021 lockup expiration, when ~120MM insider and VC shares become eligible to sell, echoing the PIPE-share dump that crashed the stock ~50% on January 4.
Scorpion expects a collapse mirroring CEO Singh's prior IPO Infinera, where top VC holders including Kleiner Perkins sold 100% of their stock within five months of lockup expiry.
The three reasons
- 1
15 interviews (9 ex-QS R&D, 4 solid-state experts, 2 VW battery team) say the science is not there
- 2
All data is single-layer — 'like using one transistor to claim you built an Intel CPU'
- 3
April 24 lockup expiry sets up an Infinera-style insider dump (VCs sold 100% in 5 months)
Primary demands
- Short QuantumScape stock ahead of the April 24, 2021 lockup expiration
- Recognize that the solid-state breakthrough narrative is unsupported by real multi-layer data
- Treat VW and Khosla 'validation' as promotional, not scientific
KPIs cited
Pattern membership
Precedents cited
- Sakti3 (Khosla-backed solid-state, sold to Dyson)
- Seeo (Khosla-backed solid-state, sold to Bosch)
- Infinera / INFN (Jagdeep Singh's prior IPO; VCs dumped 100% in 5 months post-lockup)
- Nikola (GM-blessed EV hoax)
- Theranos (Walgreens/Safeway validation)
- Sino-Forest (John Paulson)
- Luckin Coffee
- A123, Envia, Pellion (battery flops with bold claims)
- Madoff (JPMorgan vouching)
- South Sea Bubble blank-check stock (1700s)
Composition what's on the 188 slides
Slide gallery ·
Notes
Scorpion Capital's first short report on QuantumScape (QS1). Classic short-seller playbook: giant underlined Arial headlines, yellow-highlighted pull quotes from 15 anonymous experts, CNBC TV screenshots to expose CEO promotion, and pattern-matching to prior Khosla battery flops (Sakti3, Seeo) plus the CEO's own prior IPO Infinera. Three-part structure: (I) 6 'phony' scientific/technical claims, (II) scaling/manufacturability failures, (III) pump-and-dump mechanics around April 24 lockup. Villain narrative pivots on CEO Jagdeep Singh. Author credited to firm only — no individual signatory. No explicit 'closing ask' slide; last slide ends on a VW-employee quote predicting a 2030s timeline. stake_disclosed_pct left null — disclosure states Scorpion is short QS but does not quantify position size. Short interest cited as 4% of float is market-wide, not Scorpion's own.