Skillz, Inc. SKLZ
Skillz's SPAC-era growth story is collapsing — its top three games (88% of revenue) are in freefall while management touts fake NFL and Buck Hunter 'partnerships' to mask the miss.
Thesis
Wolfpack Research is short Skillz (SKLZ), arguing the mobile-gaming platform's SPAC valuation rests on 'farcical' projections that third-party app data already disproves. Installs of the three games responsible for 88% of revenue — Solitaire Cube, 21 Blitz, and Blackout Bingo — fell -52%, -40%, and -20% in Q4 2020, and total platform installs were down -20% YoY in February 2021 versus the company's promised 61.4% Q1 2021 growth. Wolfpack alleges SKLZ hid a -5.9% Q3 2020 sequential decline in Tether Studios revenue inside its S-4 disclosures, and that CEO Andrew Paradise's pattern of stock-pumping via phantom partnerships (Glu Mobile, Buck Hunter, Capcom, the February 2021 NFL 'deal') enabled insiders to dump shares at all-time highs.
SCQA
Skillz is a SPAC-listed mobile gaming platform valued at $3.5bn (vs. $725m private valuation 12 months earlier) on projections of 61.4% YoY revenue growth in Q1 2021 and 87.7% for FY20.
Third-party install data shows the three games producing 88% of revenue all peaked in Q3 2020 and are in freefall — Feb 2021 YoY installs are -20% — while management hides the decline behind serial fake 'big partnerships' announcements timed to insider share registrations.
Investors should press CEO Andrew Paradise on Q1 2021 guidance at the March 10 earnings call and short SKLZ ahead of an inevitable miss; the SPAC valuation cannot survive transparency.
No explicit price target given; Wolfpack frames downside as the gap between $3.5bn SPAC valuation and the $725m private mark from 2019, plus inevitable multiple compression once the growth story breaks.
The three reasons
- 1
SKLZ's top 3 games (88% of revenue) all declined in Q4 2020; Feb 2021 installs down -20% YoY
- 2
SPAC projections of 61.4% YoY 1Q21 growth are 'farcical' — would require 3.6M downloads in March, 2x SKLZ's record
- 3
Pattern of fake 'big partnerships' (Glu, Buck Hunter, Capcom, NFL) used to pump stock before insider sales
Primary demands
- Investors should question SKLZ management on Q1 2021 guidance during the March 10, 2021 earnings call
- Short SKLZ ahead of expected Q1 2021 revenue miss
KPIs cited
Pattern membership
Precedents cited
- SKLZ 2013 Glu Mobile partnership (never materialized)
- SKLZ 2014 Buck Hunter partnership (never materialized)
- SKLZ 2017 Beeline/Capcom Street Fighter partnership (never materialized)
Composition what's on the 16 slides
Slide gallery ·
Notes
Classic short-seller research note in Word-document format on Wolfpack letterhead. Strong narrative scaffolding: cover slug 'It Takes Little Skill to See This SPACtacular Disaster Coming' is a memorable hook. Five-pillar thesis structure (declining installs / customer concentration / Google Play exclusion / fake NFL partnership / unflattering CEO biography) is well organized. Visual production is plain — body in Times Roman, one custom green/red bar chart on p.6 showing the YoY growth cliff, embedded Bloomberg terminal screenshot on p.11 tying NFL announcement to insider S-1 registration, and highlighted lawsuit excerpts on p.14. Author is institutional Wolfpack 'we' — no individual signature. Stake size not disclosed (typical for short reports). Catalyst is explicitly the March 10, 2021 Q4 earnings call.