Contrarian Corpus
short seller research note initial thesis
2020-04-09 · 36 pages

Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. IIPR

IIPR is a cannabis REIT propped up by overpriced sale-leasebacks to insolvent tenants and sham markups; fair value is $22.29 versus a $69 share price.

N 4 Narrative
V 2 Visual
C 2 Craft
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Thesis

Grizzly Research argues that Innovative Industrial Properties (NYSE:IIPR), a cannabis-focused REIT, has accumulated a toxic portfolio of low-quality assets through sale-leasebacks at outrageous yields with cash-strapped tenants like PharmaCann, Vireo, DionyMed and MJardin who are already insolvent or near-insolvent. On-the-ground due diligence at properties in Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan and Arizona reveals empty land, unbuilt construction, and deed records showing 5x to 14x markups within days of IIPR's purchases — patterns Grizzly says border on fraud and resemble sham transactions to keep tenants like PharmaCann afloat. The firm estimates 38-49% of 2020 rental income is in jeopardy and that the rising dividend has the hallmarks of a pyramid scheme, financed by capital raises rather than sustainable yields. Independent valuation, marking down rent and re-rating cost of equity, points to no more than $22.29 per share, roughly 68% below the current $69.05 price.

SCQA

Situation

IIPR is a publicly traded REIT that buys industrial properties from cannabis operators and leases them back at advertised yields above 13%, funded by repeated equity raises totaling $832M since its 2016 IPO.

Complication

Field visits and deed records show empty lots, unbuilt facilities, and 5-14x markups in days; tenants like PharmaCann are insolvent, suggesting sham overpayments inflating book value and a dividend financed by capital raises.

Resolution

Investors should treat IIPR as a short: discount 38-49% of 2020 rental income for tenant defaults and overpayments, re-rate cost of equity to reflect the true risk, and expect a substantial dividend cut.

Reward

Independent sum-of-the-parts and yield-adjusted valuation supports a price target of $22.29 per share, implying roughly 68% downside from the $69.05 share price at the time of publication.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    38-49% of 2020 rental income at risk from insolvent or near-insolvent cannabis tenants

  2. 2

    Pattern of massive overpayments (5x-14x in days) suggests sham deals bordering on fraud

  3. 3

    Pyramid-scheme dynamics: rising dividend financed by capital raises, not sustainable cash flow

Primary demands

  • Investors should sell IIPR shares; valuation is unsupported by underlying asset quality
  • Recognize that the dividend is unsustainable and will be cut or financed by further capital raises
  • Scrutinize sham-like transactions and overpayments used to inflate book value of the property portfolio

KPIs cited

2020 rental income at risk
38% (good case) to 49% (bad case) of IIPR's 2020 rental income in direct jeopardy
Property markup (Holistic Industries, Monson MA)
Acquired by IIPR for $12.75M in 2018 vs prior $825K sale — ~14x in roughly a year
Property markup (Ascend Wellness, Lansing MI)
IIPR paid $4.8M just 4 days after seller bought for $930K — ~5x
Property markup (PharmaCann, Dwight IL)
IIPR paid $18M in 10/2019 vs $1.75M prior sale in 8/2018 — ~10x in one year
Weighted average portfolio yield
Compressed from ~17.2% in 2016 to 13.2% by end of 2019
Capital raised since IPO
$832.65M across 7 offerings between 2016 and Jan 2020
Implied cost of equity vs portfolio yield
Cost of equity ~5.38% versus 13%+ asset yield — arbitrage Grizzly views as unsustainable
Alan Gold compensation
$2.6M per year, ~2.5x IIPR's CEO salary, while running outside venture IQHQ
Funding obligations to tenants
$195M unfunded TI commitments as of 12/31/2019, plus ~$25M already-made but unfunded improvements
Independent price target
$22.29 per share vs $69.05 current — ~68% downside

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns. Orange cells are present in this deck; neutral cells are not.

Precedents cited

  • WeWork failed IPO and Adam Neumann departure

Composition what's on the 36 slides

Visual + textual elements counted across every slide in this deck. Hover a box for what that element is; click to see every slide in the corpus that uses it.

Chart types used in this deck

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Notes

Grizzly Research short report on IIPR (cannabis REIT). Distinctive features: (1) opens with a 'WeWork of Cannabis' analogy and bear-themed branding; (2) heavy use of on-the-ground field photos of empty lots and unbuilt facilities as evidence; (3) deed-record screenshots of warranty deeds with same-day flips between related LLCs to argue sham markups; (4) full property-by-property rent discount table that quantifies the 38%/49% downside scenarios; (5) closing waterfall chart bridges $69 share price down to $22.29 target via rent and yield adjustments. Document is a written research report with embedded images and charts rather than a slide deck — Word/Google-Doc visual style, not editorial design. No named human author; signed only by 'Grizzly Research'. Page-5 'Five IIPR Deals You Should Know About' (page 4 in PDF page numbering — body page 4) is the closest thing to a hero infographic.