New Pacific Metals NUAG
Bolivia-focused silver developer New Pacific trades 17x peers on concessions likely acquired illegally under a now-ousted regime; Hindenburg targets C$0.37, 90%+ downside.
Thesis
Hindenburg argues New Pacific Metals — a ~C$700M Toronto-listed silver developer whose flagship Silver Sand project sits in Potosi, Bolivia — trades at ~US$2.55 per in-situ silver ounce, roughly 17x the ~US$0.15 peer median, implying 85% downside to a Bear Creek-style valuation. The bull case rests on Bolivian concessions that Hindenburg believes were acquired in violation of Bolivian law under then-Mines Minister Cesar Navarro, who fled to Mexico after Evo Morales' November 2019 ouster; the COMIBOL contract is unratified and local officials doubt it will pass parliament. Management carries further red flags: CEO Rui Feng also chairs Silvercorp (alleged grade-inflator, litigious toward critics like Jon Carnes and Kun Huang), an 'independent' geologist who authored Silver Sand's technical report was a former Silvercorp VP, and prior Chinese projects bought from Silvercorp all failed. Hindenburg is short both NUPMF and SVM with a C$0.37 price target.
SCQA
New Pacific Metals is a Toronto-listed silver explorer whose Potosi, Bolivia Silver Sand project drove a ~400% stock run, backed by Silvercorp and Pan American Silver stakes and rising silver prices.
Concessions were acquired under Mines Minister Cesar Navarro in likely violation of Bolivian law; Navarro fled to Mexico after the November 2019 Morales coup, leaving the COMIBOL contract unratified and ratification unlikely. CEO runs fraud-tainted Silvercorp.
Hindenburg is short both New Pacific (NUPMF) and Silvercorp (SVM), arguing investors should reprice the stock to balance-sheet-plus-Silver-Sand value rather than the speculative Bolivian upside currently implied.
Price target of C$0.37, over 90% downside, derived from a scenario-weighted mix of concession revocation (C$0.30, 60%), renegotiated deal (C$0.45, 30%), and as-is ratification (C$0.59, 10%).
The three reasons
- 1
Silver Sand concessions likely acquired illegally; ratification unlikely after Morales' ouster and Navarro's flight
- 2
Trades at $2.55/oz EV — 17x the $0.15 peer median on a 191M-oz resource
- 3
CEO Rui Feng's Silvercorp history includes grade-inflation allegations and litigation against critics
Primary demands
- Short New Pacific Metals (NUPMF / NUAG)
- Short Silvercorp Metals (SVM)
KPIs cited
Pattern membership
Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.
Precedents cited
- Jon Carnes' 2011 Silvercorp fraud report
- MiMedx suing short-sellers then charged criminally with fraud
- Prophecy Development Pulacayo-Paca grade manipulation allegations
- Bear Creek Mining (Corani project) as appropriate EV/oz comparable
Notable slides (6)
Notes
Presented by Nathan Anderson at the Contrarian Investor Conference on April 20, 2020 — this is the abbreviated conference deck; a fuller written report is referenced at hindenburgresearch.com. The title slide ('Bolivia Looks Friendly Until A Coup Forces Your Friends to Flee to Mexico') is itself a masterclass in SCQA compression. Deck structure is notably clean: 3 labelled parts (Bolivian control risk, management red flags, fundamental overvaluation) + scenario-weighted price target. Dual short thesis (NUPMF + SVM). No stake percentage disclosed (short positions are sized in dollar terms, not %). Valuation anchored to Bear Creek Mining as fair comp at $0.16/oz vs NUAG's $2.55/oz.