Contrarian Corpus
short seller full deck initial thesis
2021-10-06 · 175 pages

Ginkgo Bioworks DNA

Ginkgo Bioworks is a $23B SPAC fraud whose foundry 'customers' are related-party shells that round-trip cash back as phantom revenue — a US 'China Hustle' headed for a Zymergen-style collapse.

Thesis

Scorpion Capital alleges Ginkgo Bioworks (NYSE: DNA), the $23B synthetic-biology SPAC, is a 'colossal fraud' — a US version of the China Hustle. The reported related-party share of foundry revenue (65% in 2019, 72% in 2020) is actually near 100% once Synlogic's concealed $13.6MM in R&D spend is added back, jumping the ratio to 95%. The 'customers' — Joyn, Motif, Genomatica, Allonnia, Synlogic, Kalo — are de novo entities Ginkgo and its investors created, funded and house at Ginkgo's HQ; cash and 'non-cash consideration' is round-tripped as Foundry revenue. Ex-employees and customer executives describe a 'glorified CRO' overcharging 50-250% above market, with a 90-100% failure rate across 70+ collaborations. CEO Jason Kelly is the named villain. Base case: a Zymergen-style >70% one-day collapse.

SCQA

Situation

Ginkgo Bioworks went public via SPAC at a $23B market cap, marketed as the leading synthetic-biology platform selling 'Foundry' R&D services and capturing downstream royalties or equity stakes in customer programs.

Complication

Roughly 65-72% of reported foundry revenue — and essentially 100% once Synlogic's concealed spend is added back — comes from related-party 'customers' Ginkgo created, funded and houses at its HQ, which round-trip cash back as revenue.

Resolution

Scorpion is short DNA and urges investors to recognize Ginkgo as a related-party fraud — a US 'China Hustle' — and to exit before regulatory scrutiny or eroding sentiment force a Zymergen-style repricing.

Reward

Comparable Zymergen fell >70% in a single day; Sino-Forest fell 82% the day Muddy Waters exposed it. Scorpion implies an outright collapse of DNA's $23B market cap rather than a precise target price.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Foundry 'customers' are related-party shells Ginkgo created, funds and houses at its HQ

  2. 2

    Synlogic's concealed $13.6MM R&D spend lifts related-party share from 72% to 95%

  3. 3

    Glorified CRO with 90-100% failure rate across 70+ collaborations; Zymergen-style collapse ahead

Primary demands

  • Recognize Ginkgo as a related-party scheme and a US 'China Hustle'
  • Reject the reported 65-72% related-party share of foundry revenue (true figure ~100%)
  • Treat Ginkgo as a 'glorified CRO' with no differentiated technology versus Zymergen
  • Anticipate regulatory scrutiny and a Zymergen-style stock collapse

KPIs cited

Market capitalization
$23B at $11.98/share, 1,957MM shares outstanding
Related-party share of foundry revenue (reported)
65% in 2019, 72% in 2020, 56% in Q1 2021
Related-party share of foundry revenue (Scorpion-adjusted)
Jumps to 95% in 2020 once Synlogic's $13.6MM R&D spend is included
Synlogic disclosed vs Ginkgo-booked revenue
Synlogic 10K reports $13.6MM R&D spend in 2020 vs Ginkgo's $73K foundry revenue from Synlogic
Total related-party deferred revenue
$138MM as of 3/31/2021 across Joyn, Motif, Genomatica, Allonnia, Synlogic, Kalo
Foundry pricing
Allegedly 50-250% above market rates
Historical collaboration failure rate
90-100% across 70+ third-party programs
Research base
21 interviews with former Ginkgo employees and current related-party customer executives
Short interest
22MM shares short as of 10/5
Zymergen comparable
Closest synbio peer fell >70% in a single day in August 2021

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns. Orange cells are present in this deck; neutral cells are not.

Precedents cited

  • Sino-Forest collapse exposed by Muddy Waters
  • Enron related-party / SPE abuse
  • Intrexon synthetic-biology circular revenue charade
  • Theranos and WeWork (vaporous grandiosity)
  • Zymergen (>70% one-day collapse)
  • The China Hustle (Chinese reverse-merger fraud wave)

Composition what's on the 175 slides

Visual + textual elements counted across every slide in this deck. Hover a box for what that element is; click to see every slide in the corpus that uses it.

Chart types used in this deck

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Notes

Scorpion Capital's first major short report on Ginkgo Bioworks (NYSE: DNA), published one day after DNA began trading post-SPAC. 175-page Word/PowerPoint hybrid: Arial body text, embedded SEC-filing screenshots, MA corporate-registry exhibits, yellow-highlighted prospectus excerpts and red-boxed adjusted-revenue tables. Argument is constructed around (a) related-party shell 'customers' (Joyn, Motif, Genomatica, Allonnia, Synlogic, Kalo), (b) the Synlogic $13.6MM 'smoking gun' that lifts related-party share from 72% to 95%, and (c) ex-employee testimony framing Ginkgo as a 'glorified CRO' destined to mirror Zymergen's August 2021 collapse. Scorpion is anonymous; no individual signatory disclosed, so author_name is null. Stake size not disclosed beyond 'short.' No formal closing-ask slide — short call is implicit in the disclaimer/cover. Tone is unusually polemical even for a short report ('garbage SPAC,' 'snake oil salesman,' 'Frankenstein mash-up').