Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck proxy fight
2017-11-01 · 59 pages

Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK

Deckers' board missed every margin target and wasted $600m on retail bloat and Sanuk; replacing them enables UGG focus, non-core divestitures and a doubling to $135-158.

N 4 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 3 Craft
Original source ↗

Thesis

Marcato argues Deckers Outdoor has destroyed value under an entrenched board that missed nearly every long-term margin target since 2011, oversaw a 55% EBIT margin collapse, and ploughed $606m of capex into an unprofitable retail build-out and the Sanuk acquisition (written down 60%). Deckers has underperformed its proxy peer index by 85% over five years. Marcato owns 8.4% and proposes replacing the board with nine independent nominees drawn from Toys R Us, Ralph Lauren, L.L.Bean, David's Bridal, Morgan Stanley retail banking, May Department Stores and Michael Kors. The plan: focus on the core UGG brand, divest Hoka, Teva and Sanuk for ~$464m, close unprofitable stores and recapture revenue via e-commerce and wholesale at 3x margins, cut $150-200m of costs, and recapitalize the balance sheet. Execution mirrors Wolverine Worldwide and targets a doubling of the stock to $135-158 by FY2021.

SCQA

Situation

Deckers is a $2.1bn multi-brand footwear company (UGG, Hoka One One, Sanuk, Teva) running 160 retail stores, with UGG contributing $1.45bn of revenue; Marcato owns 8.4% as its second-largest fund position.

Complication

Deckers has missed every long-term margin target since 2011, EBIT margins collapsed 55%, SG&A grew 70%, the board wrote down Sanuk 60%, stopped disclosing same-store sales after four negative quarters, and used single-trigger change-of-control provisions to entrench itself.

Resolution

Elect Marcato's nine independent nominees to focus on core UGG, divest Hoka, Teva and Sanuk for ~$464m, close unprofitable stores, cut $150-200m of costs, and recapitalize the balance sheet with accretive buybacks.

Reward

Execution mirrors peer Wolverine Worldwide and drives EBIT margin from 9% to 19%, EPS from $3.82 to $12.68, and the share price from $65 to $135-158 by 2021 — a doubling.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Board missed every long-term margin target since 2011 and presided over a 55% EBIT margin collapse

  2. 2

    Marcato's plan (UGG focus, Hoka/Teva/Sanuk divestitures, retail closures, buybacks) targets a doubling to $135-158

  3. 3

    Proxy peer Wolverine Worldwide executed this exact playbook and returned 29% in one year

Primary demands

  • Elect Marcato's nine independent director nominees at the 2017 annual meeting
  • Focus on the core UGG brand; sell or spin off Hoka One One, Sanuk and Teva
  • Aggressively close unprofitable physical retail stores and recapture revenue through wholesale and e-commerce
  • Cut $150-200m of SG&A and COGS (vs. management's implied $32m)
  • Recapitalize the balance sheet with debt-funded buybacks to reduce share count by ~53%
  • Align executive compensation with margins, profitable growth and total shareholder return

KPIs cited

5-year total shareholder return
Deckers -49% vs proxy peers +76%; 85% underperformance through 2/8/17
3-year total shareholder return
Deckers -45% vs proxy peers -14%; 31% underperformance
EBIT margin
21% in FY2011 falling to 9% in FY2017 — a 55% deterioration, 58% below original FY11 target
SG&A growth
+70% since 2011
Corporate expense growth
+32% since 2011
Total capex and investment 2011-2017
$606m spent while market cap fell from $3.2bn to $1.4bn and EPS from $5.07 to $3.82
Sanuk acquisition writedown
$189m acquisition written down 60%
Retail store count
Grew from 45 in FY2011 to 160 in FY2017 despite declining per-store revenue ($4.2m to $2.3m)
Retail EBIT margin
31% in FY2011 collapsing to ~5% in FY2017 (estimated -7% after corporate overhead allocation)
Same-store sales
Four straight quarters of declines in FY2015 (-3%, -9%, -7%, -7%) before Deckers stopped disclosing
Sum-of-parts non-core divestiture value
Teva $89m + Sanuk $94m + Hoka $281m = $464m pre-tax
Cost savings opportunity
$150-200m identified by external consultant vs Deckers' implied $32m
FY2021 EPS target under Marcato plan
$12.68 vs $3.82 in FY2017 (+232%); shares outstanding reduced from 32m to 15m (-53%)
Change-of-control windfall
$32.6m single-trigger acceleration to executives had Marcato nominees been elected
Marcato stake
8.4% beneficial ownership, second-largest position in fund

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Precedents cited

  • Wolverine Worldwide (WWW) turnaround — store closures 466 to 80, margin target beat 12 months early, non-core brand divestitures (Robeez, Cushe, Sebago)

Notable slides (6)

Notes

ISS-directed version of the Marcato proxy-fight deck for the 2017 Deckers annual meeting. Classic proxy-fight structure: failure inventory -> governance indictment -> value-creation plan -> slate credentials. Page 13 is an exceptional CEO-quote-contradiction wall (six CFO/CEO margin promises side-by-side with MISS stamps) — strong specimen. Page 46 combines before/after share-price framing with 4-column financial trajectory. Wolverine Worldwide (page 49) is the explicit 'this worked next door' precedent. Presentation_date set to 2017-11-01 as best-effort (cover states only 'November 2017'). Author is Richard T. McGuire III (Mick McGuire), named participant on page 3; deck is firm-branded without personal signature.