Callouts & quotes from 533+ activist slides

"This seems to be very, very logical with this medication. But you're exactly right. This is a generally obese patient population, and if they don't have diabetes already, they're certainly at high risk to become diabetic. They have a limited life expectancy to begin with. But they are, as a general rule, at least high risk to develop diabetes with a drug that's known to cause your blood sugars to go up...Yeah, it's a real risk with this group... your child is already at high risk to become diabetic. It's probably only going to go up with this medication. That probably means that eventually you're going to be on diabetes medicines and the like."

"We are short Goosehead Insurance (Nasdaq: GSHD) for three key reasons: (1) our analysis shows that, contrary to management’s claims, the failure rate of their first-year franchisees topped 67% in 2021 and we expect that number to increase again in 2022; (2) GSHD’s reliance on the housing market is much greater than management lets on; and (3) we calculate that the CEO and other pre-IPO investors have taken more than $900 million off the table while the company has only generated $23.4 million in cumulative net income since the IPO."

"We believe the Street is structurally misunderstanding the magnitude of the cybersecurity-related costs that Mercury will face going forward, as well as the delays in revenue contract award opportunities it will face in its high-growth “command, control, communications, computers, and intelligence” (C4I) segment – expected to be a $100m business. Mercury does not even have a CISO at present, and only recently replaced its departed CIO."

"We value REZI as if it were two separate business using the valuation multiple implied by the trading comps on the previous slide. We believe that the businesses should trade at a discount to peers given lingering legacy operational and financial reporting issues, along with growing complexity from recent M&A. We see 25% - 50% downside risk and expect REZI to underperform the technology and home services sectors."

"Documents show Waterpik’s gross margins were 47.7% - 49.1% pre-acquisition, and the CFO said he expected 200 - 300bp gross margin expansion. Fast forward to early 2019, the CFO’s recent comment that gross margins are now “on par” with the company’s gross margin (pre-tariff), indicate that margins have contracted lower in this product line closer to 44% - and this even after price increases announced in Q3 2018!"

"Former Intuit employees with knowledge of the TurboTax business corroborated our concerns, noting that (1) the state AG settlement damaged the brand and was a bad look for the Company, (2) growth expectations for TurboTax are too optimistic, (3) the costs to deliver human-intensive Live offerings are significant and increasing, and (4) TurboTax revenue really isn't subscription based."

"The ex-employee indicated internal disappointment among Soleno staff as trial data rolled in – “they want to believe it works...that was not my immediate reaction to what I saw...the person [who ran] clinical development also felt the same way...we were disappointed to not see what we were expecting...no matter how you slide and dice it, the data is there the way it is.”"

"Since 2018, approximately 50% of Monster's $3.7 billion in total sales growth has come from international markets, with the largest growth contributor being EMEA. However, we do not expect international sales momentum to continue as only two countries have been added in the past two years, competition has vastly expanded, and regulation appears likely to increase."

"The USDA produces a regular report on the diary market conditions in Argentina. The country is facing major challenges that are affecting domestic consumer consumption and the export market. Inflation continues to be rampant, the UK/Russia war is impacting exports, and energy subsidies to producers are expected to be eliminated and increase cost of production."

"The executive slammed its uptime as “just unacceptable” for inspection equipment: “doesn’t meet what we would normally expect”; “if it was not the only actinic inspection tool in the market, people would definitely go with another supplier”; “struggled with uptime concerns”; “not as sophisticated or as capable as the classic KLA mask inspection tools.”"

"Procept is currently targeting the highest procedure volume hospitals, which are likely both the most aggressive early adopters of new technology and those most likely to achieve an attractive ROI. We expect Procept's sales efficiency will suffer markedly as it transitions to targeting smaller, lower volume, more geographically dispersed customers."

"We believe the Street is structurally misunderstanding the magnitude of the cybersecurity-related costs that Mercury will face going forward, as well as the delays in revenue contract award opportunities it will face in its high-growth “command, control, communications, computers, and intelligence” (C4I) segment – expected to be a $100m business."

"Some bulls might argue that the unprecedented drop in crude oil is a massive windfall for WD-40. The Company says that 33% of its cost of to produce a can is petroleum-based specialty chemicals. Of course, the problem is that low oil prices are coinciding with severely depressed economic activity which we expect to materially depress sales."

"Given what we believe to be management and the Board's history of questionable decision making, how can shareholders trust the Company to rush this critical decision when management repeatedly refuses to share one of the most important assumption affecting the value that shareholders should expect to receive in a Red Lobster spin-off?"

"Given the recent deterioration of the Exchange's financial performance and historical precedent, we believe it is increasingly likely that ERIE's management fee will decline for the first time in decades which could reset earnings expectations by approximately 20% and slow premium growth at the Exchange over the coming years."

"Unfortunately, execution has fallen well short of expectations, with last year's annual billings growth below 10% for the first time in the Company's public history, continued negative GAAP earnings, and a share price that is still below where it closed after its first day of trading following its IPO more than six years ago."

"The article stated that “the Chinese authorities suspended the registration and approval of direct selling amid a nationwide crackdown on wrongdoing in the health products market”, and this means Morinda and other direct-selling companies in China are not expected to increase their presence in cities/provinces any time soon."

"We find it remarkable that Samsara has continued to trade at a premium valuation despite embodying all the attributes that have traditionally resulted in valuation multiple discounts: SMB focus, hardware business, and communications focus. Thus, we expect Samsara’s eventual multiple compression will be particularly severe."

"…We find many of your responses to the shareholders’ concerns to be misleading, self serving, and defensive…Given the inconsistencies in many of your recent communications, we expect that the shareholders would welcome Elliott’s nominees to the Board to ensure proper and timely execution and to avoid risk of backsliding."

"it's pretty quiet overall... what I'm not hearing people say, when can I get my hands on Vykat? Because we all know diazoxide, and we all know the problems with it. It's not like we're clueless. I'll put it this way...this somewhat surprising and out of the blue approval that I don't think any of us were quite expecting."

"Warning: If in fact Oatly is right and that it will never be able to supply enough oat milk, then we believe its future will be doomed. We expect competitors will continue to fill the void and take market share. In the long run, we see a real possibility that Oatly is squeezed out of the market and towards insolvency."

"Notably, with much of Hill-Rom's c-suite fairly new to the business, we believe that – with much of its long-term equity incentives locked up for several years at least – management has incentive to re-set expectations to manageable targets now, rather than leave investors expecting Hill-Rom to hit unattainable goals."

"Notably, with much of Hill-Rom's c-suite fairly new to the business, we believe that – with much of its long-term equity incentives locked up for several years at least – management has incentive to re-set expectations to manageable targets now, rather than leave investors expecting Hill-Rom to hit unattainable goals."

"In Q3 2021, Nuvei made another modification to its “Focus on High Growth Verticals” slide. Looking carefully, we see it now removed the sales TAM per vertical in addition to the CAGR expectation. Furthermore, Nuvei no longer makes the statement of “tremendous upside from continuing to gain share in a massive market.”"

"There is clear evidence that HSB penetration is falling behind Generac's internal expectations. Notice carefully, Generac recently revised a key slide that lowered the penetration rate from 5.75% to 5.50%. Also, Generac is claiming that the highest penetrated markets in the U.S. are 15-20%+, down from “nearing 20%”"

"We believe that the FY25 revenue guidance increase earlier this month of $10 million is substantially explained by the expected contributions from the Ambry Genetics acquisition and the new Pathos/AstraZeneca deal, two factors that we estimate should have added nearly $46 million to projected revenue for the year."

"Not only has Heska had challenges growing organically, but the Company's profit margins have declined materially since peaking in 2017. Both absolute margins and margin expansion since 2019 trail IDEXX Labs by a wide margin. Investors should be concerned that margins are not expected to improve for several years."

"Spruce Point believes that Dollarama is significantly overvalued based on its undifferentiated and increasingly uncompetitive business model, inflated and unsustainable margins which are posed to decline, and its limited growth prospects which will restrain its ability to hit its long-term earnings expectations."

"The Board of Directors concluded that none of these candidates possess the relevant board and management experience, expertise and engagement expected of the Company's Outside Directors, and that these candidates would not contribute to the effectiveness of the Board and the enhancement of the corporate value."

"We believe investors are ascribing an irrationally high valuation to Oatly. Per the Company’s own trusted data source of Euromonitor, the plant-based dairy market in its key regions is expected to be $21 billion by 2025. However, Oatly’s current valuation is almost $12 billion, or 62% of the projected market."

"You then said you had an investigation conducted by Ernst & Young (EY). This is the same company that prepared the annual financial statements. What did you expect? That they would come forward and say, Oops, sorry, we've made a mistake, we're returning our auditor's licence to practice? This is laughable."

"Stifel's $29 price target and "Buy" recommendation illustrates that analysts and investors are expecting expansion of the Amazon relationship. Barclays as well believes Amazon sales will be stable for the next few quarters, and acknowledges the big downside risk. We believe the market will be disappointed."

"Because we believe that IPX may be challenged to meet the revenue expectations set by analysts (and they may never produce any revenue in one possible scenario), we believe the best way to evaluate the valuation is price to book value. On this metric, IPX’s share price appears to be materially overvalued."

"By committing to purchase the Bertelsmann stake two years in the future at such a high value relative to the then-current economic performance of the business, AOL left itself exposed to both any potential shortfall in operating performance relative to such high expectations, as well as market volatility."

"They state they are “disturbed” by the “hype”; label it a “quantum Ponzi scheme” to “lure unsuspecting investors” with “fake science”; “a bubble” which may “crash” and take “legitimate” research “down with it”; “crazy headlines” and “false expectations” that are “not based on any research or reality”."

"Spruce Point believes that, with Penumbra U.S. Stroke revenue growth set to slow in the face of heavy competition, and with consensus peripheral thrombectomy sales expectations far too aggressive, company-wide sales growth is set to be cut almost in half from Street estimates, from FY19 through FY21."

"Spruce Point believes that, with Penumbra U.S. Stroke revenue growth set to slow in the face of heavy competition, and with consensus peripheral thrombectomy sales expectations far too aggressive, company-wide sales growth is set to be cut almost in half from Street estimates, from FY19 through FY21."

"Our YE24 remains $38, based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis. Our SOTP assumes a YE24 net contracted earning assets per share of ~$7, plus ~$30 in value per share for future deployments based on an assigned 13x multiple to expected contracted value creation in FY25 (PV7.5) less incremental financing."

"Low compensation levels as indicated by Carvana’s filings is confirmed by employee reviews posted online: it appears that management is trying to attract talent without offering attractive compensation by creating a “fun” startup-like culture and hiring young people with low salary expectations."

"Our 2025E Low forecast assumes sustained weakness in North American new life sales, stronger than expected outflows from the UK-based adviser platform, and further challenges for the international business, which has been under pressure recently due to macro-related headwinds in China and Spain."

"We urge you to change direction and do the right thing for shareholders. As we have expressed to you, we expect the shareholders’ interest to remain of paramount importance and will look to make significant changes to the Board if you continue to make decisions that destroy shareholder value."

"The substantial $35.8 million gap between these positive contributors and the minimal increase in overall guidance strongly indicates that Tempus's fundamental genomics and data segments are significantly underperforming compared to expectations established just months earlier in February."

"Share price underperformance has occurred despite no significant change in the operational outlook for ArborGen or Tenon leading us to believe that the primary cause for the underperformance was the mis-management of both the ArborGen IPO and shareholder expectations with respect to Tenon."

"We struggle to explain how gross margins expanded in the face of a structural decline of inventory turnover, and a material drop in revenues in 2015 (from emerging market challenges), and the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly changing policy in early 2015 to strengthen the Swiss Franc."

"Commentary from G&K and its financial projections illustrated how it expected to achieve approximately 3.5% - 5.3% annual revenue growth from 2016 - 2018. Yet, when Cintas issued guidance for FY 2018 including G&K, it implied a -4.2% annual revenue decline at the guidance midpoint!"

"How can the CEO, two Board members and the outside legal counsel of DSP be expected to make decisions that benefit DSP, like re-entering the licensing business and competing against CEVA, when they have a substantial economic interest in CEVA that could be harmed by such decisions?"

"PGNY has failed to meet fertility benefit revenue expectations set when it went public. However, the rapid adoption of the pharmacy benefit by existing customers has offset those misses. Importantly, we believe there is little juice to squeeze from pharmacy adoption going forward."

"Spruce Point believes that Evoqua made potentially misleading statements by dismissing sales concerns about Mar Cor, while continuing to increase the earnout asset value, an implicit reflection that it expected to receive the earnout back from its failure to meet sales targets."

"Given Vidazoo’s spectacular outperformance in 2022, why did the earn-out liability not materially increase towards the maximum amount? Instead, it moderately declined from $48.9m to $32.6m. This may suggest that PERI sandbagged expectations when providing guidance to investors."

"There is evidence that CHD is stretching the truth about the performance of FLAWLESS. When asked directly about any surprises, the CFO said "only good surprises". However, the evidence contradicts this with the integration taking longer than expected by a revision in the 10-Q."

"Maxar’s balance sheet is inflated with goodwill and overcapitalized intangible assets. We expect it will write down the value of these inflated assets by at least $2.4 billion to fair value after its evaluation of strategic alternatives results in no means to maximize value."

"Our EPS/EBITDA estimates for 2017/2018 are ~3%/-10% below Street consensus. We expect strong top-line growth from North American onshore activity levels (~30%-35% of current revenues), but this will be partially offset by headwinds from offshore activity (~40% of revenues)."

"In our opinion, MAXR’s 2018 Adj. EPS expectation of $4.75/sh is pure fiction. The Company has made numerous aggressive accounting choices that inflate its Non-IFRS results. Based on our forensic review, we estimate EBITDA and EPS are overstated by 17% and 79%, respectively"

"Amcor's CEO assured investors it received "good advice" and it didn't expect any issues from a regulatory perspective from the transaction. Unfortunately, both the European Commission and The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) disagreed, and required Amcor to divest assets."

"The market expects FIGS to continue top-line growth in the mid 20% range while accelerating EBITDA margins. As a result, the market ascribes FIGS a rich revenue multiple of approximately 4x. We have shown why we believe there is substantial room for multiple compression."

"ESG & Climate segment Adj. EBITDA Margins have increased 720bps from Sept 2022 – 2023 with headcount having grown from under 1,000 to approximately 1,300 according to the Head of ESG. While Retention Rate declines and revenue growth slows, we expect margins to contract."

"Considering that nearly three-quarters of Aegon's new life sales are driven by IULs, we would expect Aegon to be overrepresented among IUL distributors and indeed through Q2'24 YTD, Transamerica is a top 3 IUL writer in terms of premiums and number of policies written."

"Ex-employees indicated the instrument was instable and even super-users internally couldn’t keep up, and that both the software and hardware behave unpredictably with “no transparency into why things go wrong; instrument behaves in way that are “completely unexpected.”"

"From vehicle R&D to commercial production takes around 5 years. From demonstration to commercial production will take around 2 years. There will only be two commercial producers of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China in 2018 and we expect at most another 2 in 2019."

""Just So Happens" Mettler increased its EUR/CHF hedge for the first time ever ahead of the unexpected Swiss Franc revaluation. Thereafter, an audit committee member resigned, borrowing increased, and Mettler's EPS and guidance beat the Street on subsequent quarters."