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Campaigns / Muddy Waters → American Tower Corp
Muddy Waters vs. American Tower Corp

American Tower Corp · AMT

4 decks published between 2013-07-17 and 2013-09-06 — 134 pages, 134 analysed slides total. Outcome: lost.

initial thesis follow up

Timeline

Each deck in chronological order — click to open. This is the story of the campaign as it unfolded.

  1. 2013-07-17 initial thesis

    2013 07 MW_AMT_FULL_07172013

    118pp · research_note

    AMT is a Strong Sell at $44.57 (40% downside): a $250M Brazil accounting discrepancy hints at fraud, international growth is a disguised lending/carry trade, and Wi-Fi will erode tower economics.

    N 4 V 2 C 2
    ⌂ ◫ ” ⚑
  2. 2013-08-01 follow up

    2013 08 MW_AMT_08012013

    9pp · research_note

    AMT's international growth is a de facto lending / FX carry trade masking deteriorating economics, and ~$250M appears to have vanished from its Site Sharing acquisition.

    N 4 V 1 C 1
    ” ⚑
  3. 2013-08-12 follow up

    2013 08 MW_AMT_08122013

    5pp · research_note

    AMT's $811M purchase of 4,456 NIHD towers at 21x EBITDA is a de facto loan to a near-bankrupt counterparty, masking weak growth and compounding accounting red flags from the prior Site Sharing deal.

    N 4 V 1 C 1
    ” ⚑
  4. 2013-09-06 follow up

    2013 09 MW_AMT_09062013

    2pp · research_note

    AMT's $4.8bn purchase of Global Tower Partners at ~19x 2014 EBITDA looks engineered to mask decelerating US organic growth and preserve 20% dividend-growth optics; maintain Strong Sell.