Contrarian Corpus
short seller research note follow up
2013-08-01 · 9 pages

American Tower AMT

AMT's international growth is a de facto lending / FX carry trade masking deteriorating economics, and ~$250M appears to have vanished from its Site Sharing acquisition.

N 4 Narrative
V 1 Visual
C 1 Craft
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Thesis

Muddy Waters reiterates a Strong Sell on American Tower after Q2 2013 results validated its July 17 thesis: international gross and operating margins fell 200 and 470 bps YoY, EBITDA has been flat for three quarters, and SG&A is climbing 280 bps as a share of revenue. Block argues AMT's overseas growth is a 'feed the beast' M&A treadmill propped up by de facto lending (above-market purchase price for above-market rent that resets at expiry) and an unhedged FX carry trade earning less than local sovereign yields. The report introduces fresh evidence — six sources including a selling shareholder and a former AMT employee — that AMT paid roughly BRL 800-900k per tower for Site Sharing (~$300-370M total), not the $585M / $879k per tower it disclosed, leaving ~$250M unaccounted for. Block also flags misleading AFFO accounting and India over-payment.

SCQA

Situation

American Tower is a US tower REIT that has aggressively expanded internationally into Mexico, Brazil, India, Germany, and several emerging markets, marketing the strategy as a high-return growth engine.

Complication

Q2 2013 reveals the international story is breaking: margins down 470 bps, EBITDA flat for three quarters, growth driven by de facto lending and FX carry trade, and ~$250M apparently missing from the Site Sharing acquisition price.

Resolution

Maintain a Strong Sell; demand management explain the Site Sharing accounting discrepancy, justify AFFO methodology, and disclose the rent abatements, sunsets, and currency exposures behind the international metrics.

Reward

Acknowledging true economics implies materially lower AFFO (Muddy Waters models ~$340M lower than reported), declining international IRRs, and downside as six banks have already cut price targets.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    International margins collapsing: Q2 op margin down 470 bps YoY, EBITDA flat 3 quarters

  2. 2

    ~$250M missing from Site Sharing deal: AMT booked $585M but sellers received ~$300M

  3. 3

    International growth is de facto lending and FX carry trade, not durable cash flow

Primary demands

  • Reaffirms Strong Sell rating on AMT shares
  • Demands AMT explain ~$250 million discrepancy in Site Sharing acquisition price
  • Calls on management to disclose rent abatements, sunsets, and true international economics

KPIs cited

International operating margin change
Down 470 bps from Q2 2012 to Q2 2013
International gross margin change
Down 200 bps YoY
International EBITDA trajectory
Flat ~3 quarters: $111M Q3'12, $120M Q4'12, $136M Q1'13, $116M Q2'13
SG&A as % of international revenue
Up 280 bps YoY
Site Sharing claimed vs. actual purchase price
AMT disclosed $585M / $879k per tower; sources indicate ~$300-370M / BRL 800-900k per tower
India tower acquisition prices
Xcel: $98k/tower (2009); Essar: $123k/tower (Q3 2010) vs. ~$50k/tower current market
Mexico/Brazil rents
Legacy contracts ~$2,000/month vs. ~$1,000/month current market
AFFO overstatement
MW estimates 2013 AFFO ~$340M lower under proper methodology
E-Plus / Germany IRR
Modeled at 4%, likely lower after Telefónica acquisition of E-Plus
Sell-side reaction
Six banks (Barclays, Citi, JPM, Macquarie, Pacific Crest, Stifel) cut price targets after Q2

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (4)

Notes

Follow-up update to Muddy Waters' July 17, 2013 initial AMT report, written one day after AMT's Q2 2013 earnings call. Word-document style memo (no slide formatting), two basic Excel-style charts on page 3. Core fresh contribution is the Site Sharing forensic accounting: BRL vs. USD per-tower price discrepancy supported by six sources including a selling shareholder and former AMT employee. Tone is sharp and accusatory, openly speculating whether the $250M was theft, accounting plug, or bribery. CEO Taiclet quoted to expose evasions on the earnings call. No formal price target stated in this update. Stake not disclosed (Muddy Waters discloses short position generically in T&Cs).