Contrarian Corpus
short seller full deck initial thesis
2021-03-10 · 73 pages

American Battery Metals Corporation / Comstock Mining Inc. ABML / LODE

ABML and LODE are hype-driven EV battery-recycling penny stocks with fraud-tied management, fabricated permit claims, and a nonsensical LiNiCo deal — up to 90% downside.

N 5 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 3 Craft
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Thesis

Spruce Point argues American Battery Metals Corporation (ABML) and Comstock Mining (LODE) are two penny-stock shells riding EV battery-recycling hype to a combined $1.4bn valuation they do not deserve. ABML's management — CEO Doug Cole and CRO Scott Jolcover (a Nevada brothel owner whose relative pleaded guilty to securities fraud) — has repeatedly slipped its 'fully operational by 2H 2020' timeline; a FOIA response from Fernley, NV confirms no permits have even been filed on the parcel. LODE, led by Corrado De Gasperis (10 years as CEO, $176m raised, $114m of negative FCF), is promoting a nonsensical LiNiCo transaction using LiFePO4 'patent pending' technology not used by Tesla in the U.S. Spruce Point values ABML at <$1/share (55-100% downside from $2.37) and LODE at $0.35-$0.70 on a cash multiple.

SCQA

Situation

ABML and Comstock Mining are two microcap mining shells that pivoted into EV battery recycling in Nevada near Tesla's Gigafactory, riding ESG and EV sector hype to a combined ~$1.4bn valuation.

Complication

Both management teams have fraud ties, SEC litigation, a brothel-owning CRO, and repeatedly slipped milestones; a FOIA response proves no permits have been filed on ABML's Fernley parcel despite public claims.

Resolution

Strong Sell both stocks; reject the LiNiCo transaction, discount the 3-year $100m revenue model, and treat LODE as a cash shell rather than an EV recycling play.

Reward

Up to 90% downside: ABML best-case fair value <$1/share (65% downside from $2.37, possibly 100% on business failure); LODE worth $0.35-$0.70 on a cash multiple.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Management ties to fraud: CRO owns a brothel, relative convicted of securities fraud

  2. 2

    FOIA shows no Fernley permits filed despite ABML's claims of being near-operational

  3. 3

    $1.4bn valuation for pre-revenue shell implies 55-100% downside versus peer multiples

Primary demands

  • Sell ABML and LODE (Strong Sell opinion)
  • Scrutinize management claims on permits, partners, and market opportunity
  • Reject the LiNiCo transaction narrative between ABML's CRO consulting arrangement and LODE

KPIs cited

Market capitalization
ABML valued at $1,416m despite near-zero revenue and bulletin-board listing
Stock price move
ABML stock up 7874% from 52-week low; 20x surge since December 2020
Insider selling price
CEO Cole willing to sell stock as low as $0.10 and $1.20 per share
LiNiCo 3-year financial model
$100m sales and $30m pre-tax profit claimed within 3 years — Spruce Point views as a stretch
LiNiCo implied valuation discrepancy
Comstock math: $10.75m/64% = $16.8m vs Aqua Metals: $2.0m/10% = $20.0m
Green Li-Ion capitalization
Only $1.4m raised before LiNiCo investment; CEO and CTO contributed SGD 40 each in paid-up capital
ABML best-case implied share price
$0.84 using 2.5x EV/2022E $200m revenue, 65% downside from $2.37
Peer EV/2022E revenue multiple
Battery value-chain median 3.1x; recycling median 2.3x
LODE cumulative capital destruction
$176m raised across debt/equity/preferred and $114m accumulated negative FCF under De Gasperis
LODE pro-forma cash per share
$0.17 net cash per share × 2-4x multiple = $0.34-$0.68 price target
Listing requirements
ABML fails all NYSE criteria and 3 of 3 Nasdaq Capital Market criteria (negative book value, <$2 share price)

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns. Orange cells are present in this deck; neutral cells are not.

Precedents cited

  • US Antimony (UAMY) — Spruce Point 2012 short that collapsed from $4.78 to $0.20
  • Liquidmetal Technologies (LQMT) — Spruce Point 2012 short that collapsed to $0.10
  • Barzel Industries bankruptcy 2009 (De Gasperis prior failure)
  • Barry Honig / Pershing Gold pump-and-dump SEC litigation

Composition what's on the 73 slides

Visual + textual elements counted across every slide in this deck. Hover a box for what that element is; click to see every slide in the corpus that uses it.

Chart types used in this deck

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Notes

Dual-target short report covering two linked Nevada microcaps (ABML and LODE) connected via the LiNiCo transaction and the Jolcover family. Signature Spruce Point features: photoshopped cover (man with '$1.4bn serious inquiries only' sign in desert), red-flag checkmark matrices, track-record table of prior shorts (UAMY, LQMT). Ben Axler credited as CIO on p.4 quote. Strong SCQA with stock-promotion narrative, FOIA-documented permit fraud, and named villains including brothel-owning CRO and securities-fraud-convicted relatives. No stake pct disclosed (short position only).