Bunge Global SA BG
Bunge is a levered agribusiness roll-up masking a failing Viterra deal with opaque accounting; strip out the hand-waving and the stock is worth $24-$55, 55-80% below $124.
Thesis
Spruce Point is short Bunge Global SA (NYSE: BG), arguing the S&P 500 agribusiness is a levered, cash-incinerating roll-up whose recent $10.6bn Viterra acquisition from Glencore is quietly imploding. Viterra's revenue fell -16.7% in 2025 and -24% of projected EBITDA has vanished, while ~3,000 combined employees disappeared despite management's claim that headcount cuts weren't a synergy driver. Suspicious -10% PP&E write-downs, a new geographic reporting scheme that hides Argentina/Brazil revenue, and aggressive Non-GAAP treatment (1.9x leverage promoted vs. Spruce Point's 5.7x) point to financial reporting that warrants independent investigation. With insider ownership diluted from 3.7% to 0.6% and Glencore plus CPP free to sell 59m shares on July 3, 2026, Spruce Point sees a fragile multiple and models 55%-80% downside to $24.50-$55.85 per share.
SCQA
Bunge is an S&P 500 global agribusiness that just absorbed Viterra in a $10.6bn Glencore deal, promoting $11-$15/share mid-cycle EPS targets and a 1.9x net-leverage story to enthusiastic sell-side analysts.
Viterra's revenue fell -16.7% post-close, ~3,000 employees vanished with no restructuring charge, PP&E was written down -10%, and opaque geographic reporting plus Non-GAAP adjustments mask leverage closer to 5.7x.
Spruce Point calls for an independent investigation of Bunge's financial reporting and urges investors to short the stock ahead of the July 2026 lockup expiry that frees Glencore and CPP to unload 59m shares.
Applying Bunge's historical 0.30x-0.35x EV/Revenue multiple to 2026E revenue yields an equity value of $4.7bn-$10.3bn, or $24.50-$55.85 per share — 55%-80% downside from $124.09.
The three reasons
- 1
Bunge is a cash-incinerating roll-up with a $1.6bn cumulative cash flow deficit since 1999
- 2
Viterra acquisition is failing — revenue fell -16.7% in 2025 and -24% of projected EBITDA vanished
- 3
Leverage is 5.7x on our adjustments vs. 1.9x promoted, while insiders diluted from 3.7% to 0.6%
Primary demands
- Call for an independent investigation into the accuracy of Bunge's financial reporting and accounting
- Short Bunge shares with a 55%-80% downside target ($24.50-$55.85 per share)
- Heavily discount management's March 2026 Investor Day goals of $15+/share EPS by 2030
- Challenge Bunge's promoted Net Debt / EBITDA leverage of 1.9x versus Spruce Point's 5.7x estimate
KPIs cited
Pattern membership
Precedents cited
- Xylem / Evoqua acquisition (prior Spruce Point short)
- Stryker (prior Spruce Point short)
- Generac (prior Spruce Point short)
- A.O. Smith (prior Spruce Point short)
- MGP Ingredients (prior Spruce Point short in agribusiness)
- ADM SEC accounting fraud settlement (2019-2022)
- Viterra 2021 revenue restatement
- Bayer/Monsanto agribusiness synergy failure
- ConAgra SEC accounting fraud (1999-2001)
- Kraft Heinz SEC expense-management scheme (2015-2018)
- Nidera $150m Brazil accounts hole (2015)
- Gavilon Japan parent $35m inappropriate transactions loss
Composition what's on the 74 slides
Slide gallery ·
Notes
Quintessential Spruce Point short-report structure: creative photo-illustration cover (bungee jumper with 'black box' and wheat) + 'STRONG SELL OPINION' brand tag, followed by track-record legitimacy slides citing prior wins (Xylem, Stryker, Generac, AOS, MGPI), a numbered 'Top Six Reasons To Be Negative' red-flag summary, an annotated share-price timeline overlaying narrative events, then forensic accounting deep-dives (Viterra PP&E revisions, workforce vanishing, EPS-bridge critique). Uses CEO/CFO quote contradictions extensively (no-headcount-reduction claims vs. 3,000 missing employees). Bunge redomiciled Bermuda->Switzerland in 2023; report flags tax-haven reporting opacity. Strong analogue-chain argument invoking ADM's recent SEC accounting fraud settlement as template for Bunge's potential trajectory. Closing ask is a short thesis and call for independent investigation, not activist governance change.