Contrarian Corpus
short seller research note initial thesis
2014-11-20 · 18 pages

Superb Summit International Group Limited 1228.HK

Superb Summit's HK$773m of reported revenue belongs to a coal company it never owned, and its HK$1.5bn JFT acquisition is a sham valuation routed through a mystery intermediary.

N 4 Narrative
V 2 Visual
C 2 Craft
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Thesis

Muddy Waters shorts Superb Summit International (1228.HK), arguing virtually all of its 2012-2013 reported revenue was fraudulently attributed to Tianjin Libao, a coal trading company Superb has never owned — SAIC records show six unrelated individuals as beneficial owners with no change of control since 2010. Muddy Waters also alleges Superb's May 2014 HK$600 million purchase of a 40.8% indirect stake in Beijing Jinfeite (JFT), a one-man chemical consulting shop with only RMB 3,000 of 2013 revenue and RMB 975,000 of net assets, is a sham transaction valuing JFT at HK$1.5 billion via a reality-independent DCF and routed through a mysterious Mr. Ng intermediary whose Chongcheng vehicle had only US$10,000 of registered capital. Combined with a seven-year record of failed announced ventures — forestry, timber exchange, gold mining, natural gas, Mongolia coal logistics — Superb is portrayed as a stock-promotion vehicle whose only real business is being listed.

SCQA

Situation

Superb Summit International (1228.HK), a Hong Kong-listed forestry company, has seen its stock soar over 300% since June 2013 after announcing a HK$600m acquisition of a stake in coal-liquefaction consultancy Beijing Jinfeite.

Complication

Virtually all 2012-13 revenue was attributed to Tianjin Libao, which SAIC filings prove Superb has never owned; the JFT valuation is a HK$1.5bn DCF farce routed through a mystery intermediary with US$10,000 of capital.

Resolution

Sell short 1228.HK: consolidated revenues should be restated to near-zero, JFT's HK$1.5bn balance-sheet value written off, and the HK$550m promissory note to Mr. Ng treated as a dilutive obligation.

Reward

Muddy Waters argues real 2013 revenue is close to zero versus HK$773.3m reported — titled It's a Long Way Down from Here — implying substantial downside though no explicit price target is given.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    93%+ of Superb's 2012-13 revenue came from Tianjin Libao, which SAIC shows it never owned

  2. 2

    JFT was valued at HK$1.5bn via DCF despite RMB 3,000 of 2013 revenue and one engineer

  3. 3

    Seven-year track record of failed initiatives: forestry, timber exchange, gold, gas, coal

Primary demands

  • Sell short Superb Summit (1228.HK); reported revenue is largely fictitious
  • Recognize that the HK$1.5bn JFT acquisition is a sham related-party transaction
  • Discount the company's seven-year record of announced ventures that produced nothing

KPIs cited

2013 reported revenue
HK$773.3 million; Muddy Waters estimates real revenue no greater than HK$18.8m, likely zero
2012 revenue attributed to Tianjin Libao
93.2% of total; restated figure would be HK$8.2m vs. HK$120.3m reported
JFT 2013 financials
RMB 3,000 of revenue, RMB 975,000 of net assets, valued at HK$1.5 billion
JFT purchase price
HK$600m for 40.8% indirect stake (May 2014), HK$550m via 1%-coupon promissory note
Stock performance since LOI
Up over 300% since June 7, 2013 announcement
Forestry segment cumulative revenue
HK$194m over 7 years vs. HK$1.8bn purchase price in 2007
Chongcheng registered capital
Only US$10,000, yet reportedly paid for stake valued at HK$1.5bn
Cash balance
Never held close to HK$550m cash since 2007; operating cash flow deeply negative
New Beida forecast miss
Actual revenue 93-95% below projections in 2008-2010 (precedent)

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Precedents cited

  • China E-Learning Group (8055.HK) / New Beida acquisition — related DCF projections missed by 93-95%
  • Magic Stone Fund (Yang Dongjun) prior asset-flip pattern via Feifei Senwang Muye

Notable slides (6)

Notes

Word-style research memo (not a slide deck) with Muddy Waters logo on cover and dense legalistic Terms of Service on p.1. Labeled 'Part I' in the title — implies a follow-up was planned. Core evidence is SAIC filings showing Superb never owned Tianjin Libao, plus ownership org charts tracing the JFT transaction through BVI/Seychelles/Shanghai shells to mystery 'Mr. Ng' (possibly Wu Rizhang). Memorable rhetorical devices: 'Paying HK$1.5bn for Jinfeite would be like paying for a Bentley and getting a Bus Pass' (with photos), and the China E-Learning/New Beida precedent table showing 93-95% DCF misses. CEO-quote-contradiction flag set because auditor Parker Randall's own letter is quoted to express skepticism about the DCF valuation. No explicit price target; implicit thesis is 'close to zero'. Report ends mid-catalog of seven failed ventures without a formal closing slide.