Contrarian Corpus
activist letter follow up
2023-04-12 · 8 pages

Glencore Plc GLEN

Glencore's unsolicited Teck bid is structurally flawed; Glencore should first demerge thermal coal, Oil Marketing and Viterra, then merge with Teck to unlock a world-class transition-metals leader.

N 4 Narrative
V 1 Visual
C 1 Craft
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Thesis

Bluebell Capital argues that Glencore's unsolicited share-exchange offer for Teck Resources — proposed March 26 and revised April 11, 2023 — is poorly structured and destroys value by bundling Teck's steelmaking coal with Glencore's thermal coal into a combined 'CoalCo' whose terminal value is depressed by Glencore's stated rundown strategy. Glencore's ex-coal business trades at 4.0x EV/EBITDA versus 4.8x for peers, a USD 7.3bn dilution that pushes the effective premium paid to Teck from the stated 20% to 32%. Bluebell proposes an alternative sequencing: first demerge thermal coal, Oil Marketing and Viterra to Glencore shareholders as a condition precedent, then merge with Teck — raising Teck's pro-forma stake to roughly 36% of MetalsCo, removing thermal-coal exposure and cutting execution risk. The letter censures Glencore's board for ignoring Bluebell's November 2021 recommendations and for persistent governance failures.

SCQA

Situation

Glencore is a diversified miner and trader whose unsolicited share-exchange bid for Teck Resources aims to create a base-metals leader by combining mining assets and demerging a combined thermal-plus-steelmaking-coal vehicle to shareholders.

Complication

The proposed CoalCo bundles Glencore's rundown thermal coal with Teck's premium steelmaking coal while Glencore's depressed ex-coal multiple (4.0x vs peers' 4.8x) makes its shares a cheap acquisition currency, pushing the effective premium on Teck to 32%.

Resolution

Demerge thermal coal, Oil Marketing and Viterra to Glencore shareholders as a precondition, then merge with Teck, and appoint a MetalsCo CEO from outside the Glasenberg-era Glencore bench.

Reward

Teck's pro-forma MetalsCo stake rises to ~36%, Glencore's 20% thermal-coal valuation discount closes, Teck shareholders avoid thermal-coal exposure, and overall execution risk falls materially.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Glencore's ex-coal business trades at 4.0x EBITDA vs peers' 4.8x — a cheap currency used to acquire Teck

  2. 2

    CoalCo merges Glencore's rundown thermal coal with Teck's premium steelmaking coal, depressing terminal value

  3. 3

    Demerging thermal coal, Oil Marketing and Viterra first would lift Teck's pro-forma MetalsCo stake to ~36%

Primary demands

  • Spin off Glencore's thermal coal business
  • Demerge Oil Marketing and Viterra to Glencore shareholders as a condition precedent to any Teck merger
  • Restructure the Glencore-Teck combination: demerge Glencore's coal/oil/Viterra first, then merge with Teck
  • Do not appoint a long-standing Glencore executive as CEO of MetalsCo
  • Undertake a strategic review of the Viterra holding

KPIs cited

EV/EBITDA (Glencore ex-coal)
4.0x vs diversified peers at 4.8x
SOTP value dilution for Glencore shareholders
USD 7.3bn from using depressed ex-coal currency
Nominal premium to Teck
20% based on March 24, 2023 undisturbed prices at 7.78 Glencore shares per Teck B share
Effective premium to Teck
32% once Glencore ex-coal's depressed multiple is normalised (USD 1.8bn additional premium)
Revised cash element (Elk Valley Resources)
Up to USD 8.2bn to buy 100% of EVR
Implied Glencore thermal coal value
USD 26bn (derived as 8.2bn/24% × 76%)
Claimed Teck Class B value uplift
48%, of which 5-7% from synergies and 19% from re-rating
Glencore AGM dissent on coal strategy
23.7% in 2022 vs <6% in 2021
Teck's pro-forma stake under Bluebell alternative
~36% of MetalsCo vs 24% in Glencore's proposal

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Precedents cited

  • Bluebell's own November 8, 2021 letter to Glencore calling for a thermal coal spin-off
  • 2022 Glencore AGM: 23.7% shareholder dissent on coal strategy (vs <6% in 2021)

Notable slides (4)

Notes

Plain 8-page letter on Bluebell letterhead — no charts or data-viz; all argument is prose plus footnotes. Second public letter from Bluebell to Glencore (first: November 8, 2021), triggered by Glencore's unsolicited March 26, 2023 bid for Teck Resources and April 11 revision. Rhetorical craft is strong despite plain format: deploys CEO quote contradiction (Nagle's Dec 2021 Bloomberg and Investor Update remarks on coal rundown used against the proposed CoalCo), before/after framing (Glencore's proposal vs Bluebell's alternative sequencing), SOTP math showing 32% effective premium, and governance attack (Peter Coates AO as non-independent HSEC chair; DoJ/CFTC/SFO/OAG probes). Signed by partners Giuseppe Bivona and Marco Taricco; cc'd to David Platero, PM. Stake size not disclosed in this letter.