Contrarian Corpus
activist letter follow up
2024-09-25 · 9 pages

BP Plc BP

N 4 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 3 Craft
Original source ↗

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Renewables strategy is a series of U-turns with no consistency

  2. 2

    BP implicitly downgraded 2025 EBITDA guidance by ~12% to ~$40-43bn

  3. 3

    BP TSR only 10% since Looney vs. 55-128% for Shell/Chevron/Total/Exxon

Primary demands

  • Remove Chairman Helge Lund from the Board
  • Remove Lead Independent Director Dame Amanda Blanc
  • Present an updated strategic plan to investors immediately, ideally at Q3 results rather than waiting until February 2025
  • Provide a clear bridge explaining the implicit 2025 EBITDA guidance downgrade
  • Explain Lightsource BP's plans to build solar farms above the 50MW approval threshold

KPIs cited

2025E EBITDA guidance
Originally $46-49bn; HSBC estimates implicitly revised down ~12% to c.$40-43bn
Q2 2024 implied EBITDA miss
$4bn, ~8% below midpoint guidance
2024E EPS change since Looney CEO
BP -24% vs Chevron +19%, Shell +24%, Total +43%, Exxon +51%
2024E EPS change since Auchincloss CEO
BP -24% vs Chevron -22%, Shell -10%, Total -10%, Exxon +5%
EUR TSR since Looney appointment (Feb 2020)
BP 10% vs Shell 55%, Chevron 60%, Total 80%, Exxon 128%
EUR TSR since Auchincloss CEO (Sep 2023)
BP -16% vs Chevron -13%, Exxon -3%, Total +5%, Shell +7%
2025E EBITDA consensus move Q1 to Q2 2024
BP 0%, Shell -1%, Total -2%, Chevron -1%, Exxon +2%
Equinor JV impairment
$1.1bn impairment on US offshore wind after $1.1bn paid in 2020
Renewables capex plan
$30bn 2023-2030 renewables plan, contributing only $2-3bn of $53-58bn 2030 EBITDA
2030 oil & gas production target
Raised from 1.5 mmboed to 2.0 mmboed, partially reversing 2020 strategy

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (6)

Notes

Open letter dated 25 Sep 2024 from Bluebell Capital Partners (Giuseppe Bivona, Marco Tariceo) to BP Board demanding removal of Chairman Helge Lund and Lead Independent Director Amanda Blanc. Follow-up to prior 23 Jul 2024 letter. Core rhetorical move: catalogue of U-turns (7 numbered items) on renewables strategy since 2020, capped by Q2 2024 implicit guidance cut. Uses direct quotes from BP press releases on Dotzenrath hire and Equinor JV to expose broken promises. Embeds HSBC research extract as third-party validation of the ~12% implicit EBITDA downgrade to c.$40-43bn. Includes pointed legal language ('unlawful' Burnhope solar farm, Code of Ethics citation) hinting at regulatory/governance angle. Peer TSR and EPS-change bar charts are the visual centerpiece, with pale-blue BP bar isolated against dark-blue peers - classic peer-shaming viz. Also raises specific concern that Lightsource BP may be circumventing the 50MW Planning threshold by lobbying to raise it to 150MW.