CPI Property Group S.A. CPIPGR
Muddy Waters is short CPI Property Group's credit: its €19.2B portfolio appears inflated via implausible Berlin gains, cherry-picked Bubny landbank comps, and occupancy rates realtor listings show are overstated by ~2x.
Thesis
Muddy Waters is short the credit of CPI Property Group (CPIPGR), arguing that its €19.2 billion investment property and hotel portfolio is materially overvalued and its reported occupancy materially overstated. In Berlin, CPI PG's top-five office values rose ~65% since 2019 while the German vdp office price index was roughly flat; Reuchlinstrasse 10-11 alone nearly doubled to €199M despite a derelict site and unchanged gross lettable area, implying ~€87M of unjustified gains. In Prague and Warsaw — purportedly CPI's highest-occupancy markets at 93.7% and 93.0% — Colliers, CBRE, JLL, Cushman and Savills listings show key-building vacancies of ~14%, more than double reported levels. The Bubny landbank (€277M) is estimated overvalued by ~100% (€138M) via JLL's six cherry-picked comps, and 2017-2021 Polygon/MQM fair-value gains of €68M were booked before construction began.
SCQA
CPI Property Group is a €19.2 billion Central/Eastern European real-estate issuer whose portfolio of Berlin, Prague, Warsaw and other offices, hotels and landbanks underpins its bonds, with Prague and Warsaw reported as its highest-occupancy markets.
Berlin valuations diverge ~65% from the German vdp index, Reuchlinstrasse nearly doubled with no capex or GLA change, Bubny's JLL appraisal rests on six cherry-picked comps, and realtor listings show Prague/Warsaw vacancies roughly double the reported rates.
Muddy Waters is short CPI PG's credit and implicitly invites bondholders and regulators to reassess asset values, LTV and interest-coverage ratios using vacancy and land-price data that contradict management's reports.
If valuations and occupancy are marked to realtor listings and public land-price data, CPI PG's asset base shrinks materially — ~€138M on Bubny alone, ~€87M on Reuchlinstrasse, and billions across a €2.8B Prague/Warsaw segment — pressuring bond prices lower.
The three reasons
- 1
Berlin office values rose ~65% while German vdp index barely moved — valuations defy market
- 2
Reuchlinstrasse 10-11 nearly doubled to €199M despite derelict condition and no GLA expansion
- 3
Realtor listings show Prague/Warsaw vacancies ~14%, more than double CPI's reported ~6-7%
KPIs cited
Pattern membership
Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.
Precedents cited
- Vivion Investments (Muddy Waters' December 2022 report on appraiser malleability)
Notable slides (6)
Notes
Part 2 of Muddy Waters' CPI Property Group short thesis (Part 1 precedes it). Muddy Waters is short the credit (bonds) rather than equity; ticker CPIPGR refers to the bond issuer handle. The deck leans on forensic property-by-property investigation: site visits, realtor listings, Prague Building Land Price Map, and JLL appraisal deconstruction. No named author — firm-only signature. No explicit 'closing ask' slide; the appendix ends mid-analysis on Polygon/MQM. Villain critique stays institutional (CPI PG management, JLL appraisers, CPI FIM) rather than calling out a specific individual. The CEO-quote-contradiction flag is set true because the deck cites CPI's 1H 2022 earnings-call language about intentional vacancy and 1H 2023 management-report occupancy claims to expose inconsistency with realtor data.