Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck initial thesis
2016-01-13 · 99 pages

Viacom VIAB

Viacom's absent chair Redstone and overpaid CEO Dauman have driven a lost decade; replacing leadership, cutting $400M SG&A and launching OTT unlocks up to 135% upside to $95.90.

N 4 Narrative
V 2 Visual
C 2 Craft
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Thesis

SpringOwl argues Viacom has suffered a lost decade since the 2006 CBS split — shares are essentially flat while CBS has returned 72% and Disney 184%. The firm blames absent chair Sumner Redstone, an overpaid CEO-COO duo (Dauman and Dooley took a combined $432M over five years) and a board where nearly 75% of directors SpringOwl considers non-independent, including CBS Inside Edition host Deborah Norville. Viacom trades at 6.8x EV/EBITDA versus a ~10x peer average, implying a 3.6x multiple gap. SpringOwl proposes a nine-step plan: remove Redstone as chair, refresh the board, replace CEO and COO, cut $400M of bloated SG&A to peer levels, explore Alibaba or Amazon investment in Paramount, merge with AMC Networks, and push into OTT. If implemented, shares could rerate to $65-$95.90, up to 135% above the $40.79 January 2016 price.

SCQA

Situation

Viacom is a US media conglomerate (MTV, Nickelodeon, Comedy Central, Paramount) controlled by Sumner Redstone's National Amusements, trading at $40.79 with $28B enterprise value at 6.8x trailing EV/EBITDA.

Complication

A decade of stock stagnation under absent chair Redstone and overpaid CEO Dauman has left Viacom at a 3.6x EV/EBITDA discount to peers, with missed digital shifts, bloated 21% SG&A and a board nearly 75% non-independent.

Resolution

Redstone must step down as chair, the board must refresh, a new CEO must replace Dauman, SG&A should be cut $400M to peer levels, and Viacom should explore Alibaba/Amazon investment in Paramount, an AMC merger and OTT launches.

Reward

Implementing the plan rerates Viacom to $65-$95.90 per share, up to 135% above the $40.79 price — $7 new chair, $38 new CEO, $11.50 SG&A cut, $1.50 OTT, minus $3 implementation costs.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Viacom stock flat since 2006 split while CBS returned 72% and Disney 184%

  2. 2

    CEO Dauman and COO Dooley took $432M combined over 5 years as shares lagged peers

  3. 3

    SG&A at 21% of revenue vs 16% peer median — $400M of fat to cut

Primary demands

  • Sumner Redstone to step down as Chair
  • Refresh board with digital/media-experienced independent directors
  • Replace CEO Philippe Dauman and COO Thomas Dooley
  • Cut ~$400M of SG&A to bring cost structure in line with peers
  • Explore Alibaba Pictures or Amazon investment into Paramount
  • Explore AMC Networks asset merger
  • Spearhead new push into Digital / OTT channels
  • Conduct strategic assessment of all Viacom assets

KPIs cited

5-year total return
VIAB +3.0% vs CBS +145%, DIS +184%, TWX +100%, FOX +66%
1-year total return
VIAB -45.6% vs S&P 500 -1.2%
EV/EBITDA multiple (TTM)
VIAB 6.8x vs peer average 10.4x — 3.6x gap
CEO + COO compensation (5-year)
Dauman and Dooley combined $432M, highest in media
SG&A as % of revenue
Viacom 21% vs CBS/TWX 17% and Disney 16%
Potential SG&A savings
$400M annualized if brought to peer levels
Sum-of-parts NAV per share
Bear $43.22, Mid $56.33, High $72.89 vs $40.79 current
Total Debt/EBITDA
3.0x, levered from stock buybacks at inflated prices
Board size
11 directors — among the largest in media sector
Board independence
~75% of board classified as not truly independent per SpringOwl

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Precedents cited

  • AMC Networks under Josh Sapan (The Walking Dead)
  • CBS under Les Moonves (same controlling shareholder, 10.0x EV/EBITDA)
  • HBO Game of Thrones, Showtime Homeland as hit-show value templates
  • Mario Gabelli's public calls to unlock value

Notable slides (6)

Notes

Memorable rhetorical framings: cover title 'How Many Photo Ops Does It Take To Cut A Stock In Half?'; recurring 'Weekend at Bernie's' meme (p.39-42) depicting Dauman/Dooley propping up an absent Redstone; 'Mind The Gap' peer EV/EBITDA chart (p.12) with 3.6x circled in red. Author is Eric Jackson of SpringOwl (email axerri@springowl.com). No explicit stake percentage disclosed — SpringOwl is a small asset manager leveraging public-facing activism rather than a 13D stake. Sum-of-parts table (p.23) has legible Bear/Mid/High scenarios but is rendered as a raw Excel screenshot. Typo on p.87 title ('Intro' for 'Into'). Waterfall bridge on p.22/p.89 ($40.90 → $95.90) is the deck's signature SCQA-reward image.