Contrarian Corpus
short seller letter follow up
2010-07-02 · 10 pages

Orient Paper Inc. ONP

Muddy Waters stands by its ONP fraud thesis: the Baoding factory is incapable of producing reported output, and the 'rejected $300K research fee' vendetta narrative is fabricated.

N 4 Narrative
V 1 Visual
C 1 Craft
Source URL unavailable

Thesis

This July 2010 letter is Muddy Waters' rebuttal to a TheStreet.com article by Rick Pearson that defended Orient Paper after Muddy Waters' initial short report. Factory consultant Sean Regan details his January 5, 2010 site visit to the Baoding plant, arguing the dilapidated facility, absence of heavy-truck infrastructure, exposed recycled paper piles, steam-soaked workshops, and reported asset values above new-equipment replacement cost prove ONP cannot generate its claimed $102 million in paper sales. Carson Block rebuts Pearson's allegations point-by-point and denies that the report was retaliation for ONP rejecting a $300,000 paid-research proposal from his father's firm WAB Capital, explaining WAB never made an offer because ONP failed due diligence. The authors argue ONP exemplifies the broader need for genuine ground-level diligence on US-listed Chinese microcaps.

SCQA

Situation

Orient Paper (ONP), a US-listed Chinese paper microcap, published a press release and was defended by TheStreet.com reporter Rick Pearson after Muddy Waters' initial short report alleging fraud.

Complication

Pearson's video and article claimed Muddy Waters analyzed the wrong subsidiary and that the report was a vendetta for ONP rejecting a $300,000 paid-research proposal — narratives the authors say vested interests are using to distract investors.

Resolution

Regan and Block present firsthand factory-inspection evidence, detailed due-diligence Q&A with CFO Winston Yen, and a full account of the WAB Capital interaction to demonstrate the original fraud thesis stands unaltered.

Reward

Investors who trust the on-the-ground diligence rather than the US-driven promotion can avoid further losses in ONP and other touted small-cap China frauds; no explicit price target is provided.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Factory visited in January 2010 is dilapidated and cannot produce $102M of paper products

  2. 2

    ONP's reported asset values exceed brand-new equipment prices; plant is visibly staged

  3. 3

    WAB never proposed paid research; ONP failed due diligence so no offer was made

Primary demands

  • Disregard Rick Pearson's TheStreet.com article defending ONP
  • Recognize that the factory visited cannot produce ONP's reported output
  • Reject the claim that Muddy Waters' report was a vendetta for rejected paid research

KPIs cited

Reported paper product shipments
ONP claims $102 million of paper products, but logistics to ship that volume do not exist at the site
Recycled paper inventory value
Pile of recycled paper in open environment reportedly valued at $4.6 million
Workforce
ONP claims 600 workers with no employment contracts, including the chairman
Shuang Xing asset acquisition price
Approximately $13 million, appraised by an unknown local Baoding firm
Proposed WAB research compensation
CFO Winston Yen suggested ~20,000 shares; no offer was ever formalized

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (3)

Notes

Plain Word-style memo with zero graphics — two signed first-person perspectives (Sean Regan and Carson Block) rebutting Rick Pearson's TheStreet.com defense of ONP. Notable as an early Muddy Waters document that explicitly recounts the origin story of the firm (formed after the ONP WAB Capital due-diligence episode). Rich in CFO Q&A transcripts that function as CEO-quote-contradiction device. No charts, no branding, no valuation model — pure narrative rebuttal. Classified as letter rather than research_note because of the signed-perspective structure.