Contrarian Corpus
short seller full deck initial thesis
2024-04-03 · 68 pages

WSP Global Inc. WSP

WSP Global is a $27bn engineering roll-up masking financial stress with accounting tricks, scandalous leadership, and tax-evasion allegations — Spruce Point sees 25-50% downside to C$110-$165.

N 4 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 3 Craft
Unlock to download PDF Spruce Point research ↗

Thesis

Spruce Point issues a Strong Sell on WSP Global, a $27bn Montreal-based engineering roll-up trading at a premium 16x 2024E EBITDA. The firm's forensic review uncovers a scandalous leadership history — Vice Chair Pierre Shoiry was sanctioned by Quebec's Order of Engineers, and Chairman Christopher Cole scrubbed his bio of a 2014-2019 Redcentric chairmanship marred by accounting fraud. Spruce Point alleges WSP is masking growing strain via vague backlog redefinitions, a switch from monthly to periodic cost reviews, an oversized Wood E&I provision account that violated IFRS guidance and boosted EBITDA, and free cash flow conversion of just ~38% vs. 110% promoted. A whistleblower in India alleges tax evasion through Cyprus entities. With CPPIB selling 2.5m shares and the Audit Committee captured by a Montreal old-boys club, Spruce Point sees 25-50% downside to C$110-$165.

SCQA

Situation

WSP Global is a $27bn TSX-listed engineering and professional services roll-up that has acquired 22 companies for $4.3bn since 2020 and trades at a premium 2.8x revenue and 16x 2024E EBITDA on belief it is a world-class operator.

Complication

Forensic review reveals scandalous leadership (Vice Chair sanctioned, Chair tied to Redcentric fraud), vague backlog and DSO definitions, loosened revenue recognition, an oversized Wood E&I provision flattering EBITDA, and a whistleblower alleging Cyprus-routed tax evasion.

Resolution

WSP should overhaul its Montreal-clubby Audit Committee and form an independent committee to evaluate Spruce Point's findings, improve disclosure on backlog, DSOs, and corporate structure, and investigate the tax-evasion whistleblower claim.

Reward

Reverting WSP's premium multiple toward industry peers implies 25-50% downside to a C$110-$165 share price (vs. C$226 current) — a 35-49% move on EBITDA-multiple math against a +8% sell-side consensus upside.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Scandalous leadership: Vice Chair sanctioned by Quebec Engineers; Chair tied to Redcentric accounting fraud

  2. 2

    Accounting gamesmanship: vague backlog redefined, revenue recognition loosened, provision account boosted EBITDA

  3. 3

    Free cash flow conversion ~38% vs. 110% promoted; whistleblower alleges tax evasion via Cyprus entities

Primary demands

  • Overhaul WSP's Audit Committee, currently stacked with Montreal-based business executives
  • Form an independent committee to evaluate Spruce Point's findings
  • Improve financial transparency on revenue contributions, backlog definition, and corporate organizational structure
  • Investigate whistleblower allegations of tax evasion involving entities in Cyprus

KPIs cited

Free cash flow conversion
~38% estimated vs. 110% promoted by management
Adj. EBITDA margin trend
Declined ~30bps vs. peer ~80bps improvement over past two years
Net capex miss
Cumulatively underspent guidance by ~$150m over four years
Backlog to LTM revenue
Declining across all regions except EMEAI in 2023; APAC notably weak
DSO discrepancy
71.3 days reported to comp committee vs. 73 days reported to investors
Goodwill testing assumptions
2-5% revenue growth used despite 6% historical and 5-8% 2024 guidance; 11.8-23.5% EBITDA margin range
Wood E&I provision adjustment
Post-12-month revision boosted Adj. EBITDA $9.6m and EPS $0.06 in Q4'23
Valuation multiple
16x 2024E EBITDA and 2.8x revenue — highest in global peer group
Insider ownership ex-Shoiry
Remainder of board owns just 0.05% of WSP stock
CPPIB divestment
Sold 2.48m shares at C$182.26 on Nov 15, 2023

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns. Orange cells are present in this deck; neutral cells are not.

Precedents cited

  • Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) — purchase-price manipulation short, Buffett invested then collapsed
  • Redcentric plc — UK accounting scandal under Chairman Christopher Cole's watch, stock fell 70% intraday
  • Lightspeed (LSPD) — prior Spruce Point Montreal short, -90%
  • Nuvei (NVEI) — prior Spruce Point Montreal short, -86%
  • Saputo (SAP) — prior Spruce Point Montreal short, -25%

Composition what's on the 68 slides

Visual + textual elements counted across every slide in this deck. Hover a box for what that element is; click to see every slide in the corpus that uses it.

Slide gallery ·

All 68
No slide inventory yet

Pass-2 extraction may still be in progress for this deck.

Notes

Classic Spruce Point short-report structure with cartoon cover (train-wreck pig), exec summary, scandal history, accounting forensics, and downside valuation. Notable rhetorical moves: side-by-side bio screenshots showing Cole 'scrubbed' Redcentric mention; year-over-year disclosure-language diffs (backlog, revenue recognition, STIP); CBI/Buffett analogy used as warning template. No SOTP — pure multiple-compression argument. No stake disclosed (typical for short reports — Spruce Point discloses short position generically in disclaimer but not %). Date inferred from filename and disclaimer cadence (April 3, 2024).