Contrarian Corpus
activist letter follow up
2024-10-21 · 5 pages

BP Plc BP

Bluebell publishes ten pointed questions BP must answer at the 29 Oct 2024 Q3 call, demanding transparency on abandoned EBITDA, production and energy-transition targets and faulting Board oversight.

N 3 Narrative
V 2 Visual
C 1 Craft
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Thesis

On the eve of BP's 29 October 2024 Q3 earnings call, Bluebell Capital Partners writes to BP's Board (copying 26 sell-side analysts) accusing CEO Murray Auchincloss of producing no updated strategic plan after twelve months in office despite numerous U-turns on the February 2023 strategy, and of letting material decisions leak to Reuters instead of being disclosed officially. The letter sets out ten specific questions management must answer: the 2025 EBITDA build by division and the commodity-price assumptions behind it, when a revised 2025 target will come, whether the 2030 EBITDA, 2.0 mmboed production and 20-30% Scope 3 targets still stand, the status of TravelCenters' $800m EBITDA, the halt to offshore wind and the $30bn Hydrogen + Power capex, and the Lightsource Burnhope 'unlawful' planning ruling. Bluebell frames the opacity as a Chair and Senior Independent Director governance failure.

SCQA

Situation

BP, a UK oil major, set a February 2023 strategic plan with quantified 2025 and 2030 EBITDA, production and energy-transition targets that the market still uses to track the company.

Complication

Twelve months into Auchincloss's tenure those targets have effectively been abandoned, with U-turns leaked to the press rather than disclosed, leaving investors with no anchor and a passive Board.

Resolution

At the 29 October 2024 Q3 call, BP must answer ten specific questions covering EBITDA build and assumptions, production, offshore wind, Scope 3, Hydrogen + Power capex, and the Lightsource Burnhope planning ruling.

Reward

Restored disclosure discipline gives the market a credible measurable plan again and exposes the Chair's and Senior Independent Director's failure to govern, paving the way for accountability.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    12 months in, CEO Auchincloss has produced no updated strategic plan despite numerous U-turns

  2. 2

    BP is leaking strategy changes to the press instead of communicating transparently to the market

  3. 3

    Chair and Senior Independent Director are failing to govern the Board and enforce disclosure

Primary demands

  • Disclose 2025 EBITDA build by division and the underlying Brent, Henry Hub and refining-margin assumptions
  • Provide timing for a revised 2025 EBITDA target and reconfirm or withdraw the 2030 EBITDA target
  • Officially confirm or deny press-leaked U-turns: dropping the 2.0 mmboed 2030 production target and halting new offshore wind
  • Reconfirm the 20-30% Scope 3 reduction by 2030 versus 2019 baseline
  • Clarify the validity of the $30bn 2023-2030 Hydrogen + Power capex plan after the wind exit and CCUS scope cut from 30 to 5-10
  • Explain corrective actions following the 'unlawful' Lightsource BP Burnhope solar planning ruling

KPIs cited

2025 EBITDA price-sensitivity
BP CEO quoted that a 2025 Brent strip near $75/bbl plus weaker refining could be a ~$4bn rule-of-thumb hit
2030 oil & gas production target
2.0 mmboed by 2030 reportedly being dropped
Scope 3 reduction target
20-30% by 2030 vs. 2019 baseline — reconfirmation requested
Hydrogen + Power capex plan
$30bn over 2023-2030
Hydrogen + CCUS opportunities
Cut from 30 to 5-10
TravelCenters of America EBITDA
~$800m target for 2025

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (3)

Notes

Plain-prose letter on Bluebell letterhead, signed by co-CIOs Giuseppe Bivona and Marco Taricco, copied to BP's Board and 26 sell-side analysts by name — the wide CC list is itself a pressure tactic. Tactical follow-up in Bluebell's ongoing BP campaign rather than a fresh thesis: structured as ten enumerated questions for the 29 Oct 2024 Q3 call. CEO contradiction comes via a footnoted verbatim quote from BP's Q2 2024 results where Auchincloss said the $4bn price-impact 'rule of thumb' is a call 'we don't know at this stage'. No charts, no SOTP, no target price.