AppLovin Corporation APP
Muddy Waters is short AppLovin; the CEO and CTO's March 2025 denials of persistent identifiers are demonstrably false, exposing APP to deplatforming, regulatory, and margin-compression risks.
Thesis
Muddy Waters, short AppLovin, argues that CEO Adam Foroughi's and CTO Basil Shikin's March 31, 2025 blog posts denying the creation and use of persistent identifiers are blatant lies. Using captured HTTP traffic and forensic analysis by third-party Permanent Record Research, Muddy Waters shows APP's MAX SDK generates a persistent compass_random_token (CRT) that is relabeled 'alart' and 'art' while retaining the same underlying value, linking Zynga mobile game users to e-commerce sites like drinkbrez.com, ilmakiage.com, namacbd.com, and minceetbien.com across Apple's privacy sandbox. The same GUID persists for weeks across four e-commerce domains and three applovin.com subdomains, enabling cross-app retargeting that violates user privacy, IDFA/ATT rules, and partner platforms' terms of service. Muddy Waters contends this exposes APP to deplatforming by Meta, regulatory action, and margin compression as competitors replicate the techniques and retargeting customers rein in spend.
SCQA
AppLovin's MAX SDK and ad-mediation platform depend on identifying users across apps and e-commerce sites inside Apple's post-IDFA/ATT privacy sandbox, which prohibits cross-app tracking without user opt-in.
APP's CEO and CTO explicitly denied creating persistent identifiers in March 31, 2025 blog posts, yet HTTP captures show a persistent compass_random_token relabeled 'alart' and 'art' tracking users across Zynga games, Shopify sites, and applovin.com subdomains.
Muddy Waters remains short APP and publishes forensic evidence — video, data spreadsheets, Gephi graph — commissioned from Permanent Record Research to force investors, Meta, and regulators to confront the CEO's and CTO's deceptions.
Downside from deplatforming by Meta (key partner and competitor), regulatory action over privacy and TOS violations, and margin compression as retargeting customers cut spend or competitors replicate APP's techniques. No explicit price target is shown.
The three reasons
- 1
APP's CEO and CTO blog posts on March 31, 2025 falsely deny the creation and use of persistent identifiers
- 2
HTTP captures show a compass_random_token relabeled as 'alart'/'art' links users across Zynga games, Shopify sites, and applovin.com domains
- 3
Deplatforming by Meta, regulatory action, and margin compression threaten APP's revenues and margins
KPIs cited
Pattern membership
Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.
Notable slides (6)
Notes
Follow-up short report to Muddy Waters' initial March 27, 2025 report on AppLovin. Accompanies a video from Permanent Record Research (Justin Seitz). Core device is a CEO/CTO quote-contradiction built on forensic HTTP captures showing a compass_random_token relabeled 'alart'/'art' persisting across Apple's privacy sandbox. Strong technical proof (data tables, Gephi graph, Proxyman captures) but no sum-of-parts, peer-gap chart, or explicit price target — typical of a short-seller follow-up focused on moving the narrative rather than valuation. Named villains: CEO Adam Foroughi and CTO Basil Shikin. Author name not disclosed on cover; Muddy Waters publishes under firm name (Carson Block attribution not on this document).