Contrarian Corpus
activist conference presentation follow up
2012-10-01 · 26 pages

Multiple (ValueAct portfolio: Moody's, CBRE, Motorola Solutions, Adobe, Halliburton, Autodesk, Gardner Denver, Sara Lee, Verisign, CR Bard)

ValueAct's edge is concentrated, board-level positions in differentiated, recurring-revenue businesses — picking quality and avoiding leverage, complexity and bad governance.

N 4 Narrative
V 2 Visual
C 2 Craft
Original source ↗

Thesis

Jeff Ubben frames ValueAct's playbook as constructive activism applied to high-quality businesses rather than turnaround projects. The firm targets differentiated, fee-based, recurring-revenue companies — Moody's, CBRE, Motorola Solutions, Adobe — where pricing power, sticky customers and IP create durable cash flows. ValueAct then uses long-term LP capital and a 'Triangle of Alignment' to take meaningful stakes and access boards early (Motorola via Keith Meister and Carl Icahn; CBRE via Ray Wirta; Sara Lee via Jim Crown). The closing 'Enemy of Returns' framework codifies lessons learned from prior misses: avoid expensive valuation, inappropriate leverage, business complexity, and bad governance. Even as the fund scales, Ubben argues, core positions are getting simpler and more concentrated, not less.

SCQA

Situation

ValueAct manages concentrated, long-term equity positions and uses board-level engagement to drive change at quality businesses with pricing power and recurring revenue.

Complication

Most public equity allocators chase index-like exposure or distressed turnarounds; activism alpha is real but only materializes where governance is good and blockholders exist.

Resolution

Build a portfolio of differentiated, fee-based, recurring-revenue businesses, take board access early via trusted directors, and explicitly screen out valuation, leverage, complexity and bad-governance risks.

Reward

Concentrated quality compounds: Moody's, CBRE, Motorola Solutions and Adobe deliver double-digit organic growth runway with low cyclicality, justifying the ValueAct premium over traditional value managers.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Activism alpha exists only where governance is good and blockholders are present

  2. 2

    Quality businesses with pricing power and recurring revenue beat traditional financials

  3. 3

    Board-level access through trusted directors compounds returns over time

Primary demands

  • Invest in differentiated, focused business models with recurring fee-based revenue
  • Avoid the four enemies of returns: valuation, leverage, complexity, bad governance
  • Use board access early in the investment lifecycle to drive change from inside

KPIs cited

Moody's monitoring/subscription revenue share
55% of revenue is monitoring/subscription, supporting recurring cash flow
Moody's revenue growth opportunity
Low double-digit (3-4% GDP + 2% disintermediation + 2-3% MA + 4% pricing)
CBRE contractual revenue
49% of LTM 6/30/12 revenue contractual, up from 29% in 2006
CBRE revenue mix
50% contractual and 31% leasing
U.S. CRE loan maturities
$1.4 trillion of commercial real estate debt maturing 2012-2015
Slate proposals (1996-2002)
Only ~2 alternative slates per year for companies with market cap > $200mm
CEO turnover (1993-1999)
Only 1% of public-company CEOs fired per year
Shareholder rejection of option plans (2000)
Less than 1% of option plans rejected
Moody's-rated U.S. corporate debt maturities
$386bn maturing 2014 (2011 study); $376bn in 2016 (2012 study)
Portfolio concentration
Motorola Solutions 65% revenue / 61% EBIT from gov't radio (75% market share); Adobe 73%/78% from Digital Media (80%+ share); Moody's 69%/86% from ratings (80%+ share)
Net financial leverage of cyclical holdings
Halliburton 0.4x, Autodesk -2.8x, Gardner Denver 0.6x

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Precedents cited

  • Cremers & Nair (2004) Yale ICF study on governance and equity returns
  • Bebchuk Business Lawyer 2003 study on slate proposals
  • Motorola Solutions board engagement with Keith Meister and Carl Icahn

Notable slides (5)

Notes

Fund-level philosophy talk by Jeff Ubben at Value Investing Congress 2012, not a single-target activist campaign. Spans investment process (Triangle of Alignment, Circle of Life), portfolio examples (Moody's, CBRE), and a closing 'Enemy of Returns' framework (Valuation, Leverage, Complexity, Bad Governance) with lessons learned. Notable for the explicit 2x2 framing of activism alpha (governance x blockholder presence) and for naming directors used to access boards (Keith Meister, Carl Icahn at Motorola; Lou Simpson at Verisign; Jim Crown at Sara Lee; Ray Wirta at CBRE). Visual style is generic mid-2000s PowerPoint with cliched SmartArt (cycle arrows, dartboard) — strong narrative content but weak visual craft. Date approximated to 2012-10-01 (VIC 2012 was held in early October).