Contrarian Corpus
short seller research note initial thesis
2023-12-11 · 25 pages

Ramaco Resources, Inc. METC

Wolfpack is short METC: Brook Mine's REE concentration sits below crustal average, processing economics imply an $88bn loss, and insiders have dumped $96M into WSJ-fueled hype.

N 4 Narrative
V 2 Visual
C 2 Craft
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Thesis

Wolfpack argues Ramaco Resources (METC) is being pumped on a Wall Street Journal article that hyped its Brook Mine as a $37bn rare-earth elements deposit, when in fact the mine's average concentration of the four critical magnetic REEs (Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb) is only 59 PPM — 12% below the Earth's crustal average and 3-15x worse than micro/nano-cap clay-REE peers like Meteoric, Aclara and Australian Rare Earths. Peer operating costs of ~$14.65/tonne against Wolfpack's $3.59/tonne realizable revenue imply an $11.06/t loss and a cumulative $88bn destruction if the resource were ever mined. Management has skipped the standard ~$500 PH4/PH1 recoverability test, CEO Randall Atkins carries a 1988 fiduciary-duty judgment tied to brother Charlie Atkins' tax-fraud scheme, and largest holder Yorktown Partners has sold 12% of its stake while a $400M shelf threatens ~45% dilution.

SCQA

Situation

METC is a met-coal miner whose stock surged 40%+ after a WSJ article hyped its Brook Mine in Wyoming as a potential $37 billion rare earth elements deposit, sparking national media coverage and retail enthusiasm.

Complication

Brook Mine's REE concentration is actually below Earth's average crustal abundance, peer cost benchmarks make extraction structurally unprofitable, and METC has dodged the cheap recoverability test that would settle the question.

Resolution

Short the stock: Wolfpack discloses a short position, urges investors to discount the $37bn promotion, and demand management publish the standard PH4/PH1 recoverability test results before any further capital raise.

Reward

Brook Mine carries no rare-earth value at current concentrations and would lose ~$88bn if mined; an imminent $400M shelf offering implies ~45% dilution at today's inflated valuation, pointing to severe downside.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Brook Mine's REE concentration (59 PPM) is 12% below average Earth's crust

  2. 2

    Processing costs ~$14.65/t dwarf $3.59/t realizable revenue — $88bn estimated loss

  3. 3

    Insiders dumped $96.3M since Nov 10; Yorktown sold ~12% of stake into the hype

Primary demands

  • Sell/short METC shares ahead of expected dilution from $400M shelf offering
  • Demand METC publish PH4/PH1 recoverability test results on Brook Mine clays
  • Discount management's $37bn REE valuation as stock-promoter spin

KPIs cited

Brook Mine critical REE concentration
59 PPM vs 67 PPM Earth's crust average — 12% lower
Realizable REE revenue per tonne
$3.59/t at Brook Mine vs $14.65/t peer average operating cost
Estimated total loss to mine $37bn of REEs
~$88 billion economic destruction
Insider selling
$96.3M dumped since Nov 10, 2023; >10% of market cap
Yorktown Partners stake sold
~12% of holdings sold since November
Stock move
+40% in the past month following WSJ article
Shelf dilution risk
$400M shelf = ~45% dilution at current valuation
Peer concentration ratio
Clay-REE peers carry 3-15x higher concentrations of the four critical REEs
PH4/PH1 recoverability test cost
~$500 industry-standard test that METC has not disclosed

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns. Orange cells are present in this deck; neutral cells are not.

Precedents cited

  • Meteoric Resources (Caldeira) clay-REE project
  • Aclara Resources (Penco Module) clay-REE project
  • Australian Rare Earths (Koppamurra) clay-REE project
  • Charlie Atkins / The Securities Group 1987 tax fraud case

Composition what's on the 24 slides

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Chart types used in this deck

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Notes

Wolfpack Research short report on Ramaco Resources (METC), Dec 11 2023. Format is a ~25-page Word/Times-Roman memo with embedded tables and a few charts (peer-cost table p.4, Critical Battery Metals bar chart p.5, Bloomberg insider-selling chart p.13). Headline: 'METC: Pumping And Dumping Nearly Worthless Dirt.' Short position explicitly disclosed in body but no % stake; standard WPR disclaimer notes WPR 'may be long, short or neutral at any time.' Strong adversarial framing built on three pillars: (1) crustal-abundance comparison undermining the 'world-class' claim, (2) clay-REE peer cost benchmarking, (3) insider selling + management criminal-history attack on Charlie/Randall Atkins. No explicit price target or closing call-to-action slide — typical for a short-seller research note that lets the disclosure of a short position carry the implicit ask.