Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck proxy fight
2015-04-22 · 88 pages

E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company DD

DuPont is a chronically underperforming conglomerate; electing Trian's four nominees forces structural review, cost cuts, and governance reform to unlock $120+/share by 2017 — a 21% IRR.

N 5 Narrative
V 4 Visual
C 4 Craft
Original source ↗

Thesis

DuPont has delivered bottom-quartile EPS growth versus every peer group over 5, 10 and 20 years, missed long-term targets repeatedly, and seen its unaffected stock price decline 11% over 16 years despite continual portfolio restructuring. Trian's diagnosis: DuPont is an over-complex conglomerate with $2-4bn of excess corporate costs (proven by the Axalta carve-out, where the same business added $229m of EBITDA under new owners), dilutive M&A like Danisco (margins down 33%), and uneconomic ROIC of 5.0% versus an 8.4% cost of capital on two-thirds of revenue. Electing four highly qualified nominees — Nelson Peltz, John Myers, Arthur Winkleblack, Robert Zatta — would close management's information advantage, end 'crony' compensation, fix Chemours' poor spin governance, and drive DuPont toward an implied $120+ share price by 2017, a 21% IRR.

SCQA

Situation

DuPont is a 200-year-old diversified industrial and chemicals conglomerate with seven segments, ~$35bn in revenue, and a Chemours spinoff in flight; it has restructured continuously since 1998.

Complication

Despite endless 'higher growth, higher value' rhetoric, EPS growth is bottom-quartile across every peer group and time horizon, margins lag peers in 5 of 7 segments, ROIC sits 40% below WACC, and the board lacks the information to hold management accountable.

Resolution

Elect Trian's four nominees to the board to assess corporate structure (including separation), strip out $2-4bn of excess corporate costs, fix capital allocation, end 'crony' compensation, and rebuild governance — VOTE THE GOLD PROXY CARD.

Reward

Trian's Summary White Paper modeled an implied target value above $120 per share by year-end 2017 — a 21% internal rate of return for shareholders, with additional upside from $2-4bn of excess corporate costs.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    DuPont's EPS growth is bottom-quartile vs every peer group over 5, 10 and 20 years

  2. 2

    $2-4bn of excess corporate costs — Axalta proved DuPont was burdening Coatings with $229m of overhead

  3. 3

    Conglomerate complexity and dilutive M&A (Danisco margins down 33%) require board-level intervention

Primary demands

  • Elect Trian's four nominees (Nelson Peltz, John Myers, Arthur Winkleblack, Robert Zatta) to the DuPont board
  • Assess corporate structure, including potential separation of the conglomerate portfolio
  • Eliminate $2-4bn of excess corporate costs and ensure productivity savings flow through to the bottom line
  • Reform capital allocation: cut value-destroying R&D, raise dividend, return more capital to shareholders
  • Improve corporate governance, transparency of reporting, and alignment of executive compensation with performance
  • Fix Chemours spinoff governance (staggered board, supermajority, anti-takeover provisions)

KPIs cited

Target share price
>$120 per share by YE2017, implying a 21% IRR
EPS growth (2011-2014)
DuPont -7%, vs peer median ~+18%; bottom-quartile across all peer groups
EPS growth (2007-2014, latest cycle)
DuPont 30%, vs FMC 166%, EMN 156%, DHR 91%
EPS growth (20-year, 1994-2014)
DuPont 100%, dead last vs peers (DHR 1,745%, UTX 1,172%)
Excess corporate costs
Trian estimates $2-4bn of excess corporate costs annually
Coatings/Axalta EBITDA
$229m higher in 2011 under Axalta vs DuPont (+68% same-year delta)
Unaffected TSR (since Conoco split, 1998)
DuPont 55% vs S&P 500 144%, S&P Chem 257%
ROIC vs WACC
5.0% actual ROIC vs 8.4% WACC — 40% below cost of capital, ex-Ag/Pharma
CEO insider selling
Ellen Kullman sold ~54% of stock (~$80m) since Trian invested; 23% in week after White Paper
Danisco profitability
Nutrition & Industrial Biosciences EBIT margins down 33% since acquisition (15.2% PF -> 9.3%)
Versions of 2011 EPS reported
Nine different EPS figures for 2011 reported by DuPont
Compensation misalignment
2014: 0% corporate performance payout vs 80-100% individual performance payout
Q1 2015 organic revenue growth
-1% YoY; segment margins contracted ~100bps; operating EPS -15%
Implied core EPS growth needed
29% Q2-Q4 2015 EPS growth required just to hit lowered $4.00 guidance
Trian AUM
~$11.4bn including callable commitments as of 4/1/15

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Precedents cited

  • Axalta / Coatings carve-out (DuPont sold Coatings in 2012; same business EBITDA grew 150% under new owners)
  • Heinz transformation (Trian board engagement, 2006-2013)
  • Snapple turnaround (Harvard Business School case study)
  • Triangle Industries / American National Can (Peltz built Fortune 100 industrial)
  • Family Dollar board defense and sale to Dollar Tree
  • Ingersoll-Rand / Allegion spin
  • Mondelez / Kraft, Time Inc / Time Warner, PayPal / eBay, Gannett (good-governance spin precedents)

Notable slides (6)

Notes

Quintessential proxy-fight investor deck and arguably the most-studied activist campaign of the 2010s. Strong SCQA spine: opens with proxy advisor endorsement and GOLD card branding, builds through underperformance evidence (peer gap charts on multiple horizons), diagnoses root causes (conglomerate complexity, dilutive M&A, excess costs), then closes with governance reform and 'DuPont Can Be Great.' Page 24 (Axalta carve-out) is a standout 'before/after via comp' rhetorical device. Page 33 (Rhetoric vs Reality) is a clean two-column CEO-quote-contradiction format. Page 35 (nine versions of 2011 EPS) is a memorable accountability gotcha. Author attributed to Nelson Peltz as Trian CEO and lead nominee. Stake of 2.7% taken from page 41 TSR table. Outcome (filled later): Trian narrowly lost the May 2015 proxy vote but Kullman resigned in October 2015; the Dow-DuPont merger and subsequent three-way split followed in 2017 — effectively executing Trian's breakup thesis.