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short seller research note follow up
2024-09-24 · 5 pages

Multiple (portfolio update)

N 2 Narrative
V 2 Visual
C 1 Craft
Unlock to download PDF Citron Research ↗

The three reasons

  1. 1

    AGL short worked: $5 PT set when stock was $25, fell to target on unprofitable model

  2. 2

    Still long GEO and Alibaba; BABA benefits from Qwen AI, cloud, and e-commerce rebound

  3. 3

    Now cautious on ASTS at $26 after run from $2 given dilution risk and Starlink competition

KPIs cited

AGL price target
$5 target set when stock traded at $25; stock ultimately fell to target
ETSY performance since Citron publication
Down 60%
APLS performance since Citron publication
Down 30%
GEO Group price appreciation
Up from $8 at initial commentary
ASTS market cap / price
Now ~$26 with market cap north of $7bn, vs. $20 and $1bn market cap in 2021 recommendation

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns. Orange cells are present in this deck; neutral cells are not.

Villain named CEO-quote contradiction Before / after framing Peer-gap chart Sum of parts Fraud exposé Break-up / spinoff Governance / board Management change Proxy fight Top visual craft Masterclass

Composition what's on the 5 slides

Visual + textual elements counted across every slide in this deck. Hover a box for what that element is; click to see every slide in the corpus that uses it.

0 charts 0 tables 0 callout boxes 1 quote blocks 0 screenshots 0 photos 1 bullet lists 0 diagrams

Slide gallery ·

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Pass-2 extraction may still be in progress for this deck.

Notes

Reflective 'Good / Bad / Ugly' retrospective rather than a single-target short thesis. Covers past shorts (AGL, ETSY, APLS), current longs (GEO, BABA), an unexpected SPAC win (ASTS, now cautious), and acknowledges misses (Edgio, Blue Apron). Word-doc-style memo with only Citron logo header branding; no charts or slides. Treated as fund-level follow-up / portfolio update. Quotes Buffett ('far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price...') as lesson-learned framing. Signed collectively as Citron Research, no named individual signatory.

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