Contrarian Corpus
activist letter initial thesis
2023-07-06 · 3 pages

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. AQN

Starboard, now AQN's largest holder at 7.5%, says selling the unregulated renewables fixes leverage and the payout ratio, leaving a greener regulated utility worth a peer-premium re-rating.

N 4 Narrative
V 1 Visual
C 1 Craft
Original source ↗

Thesis

Starboard Value disclosed a 7.5% stake in Algonquin Power & Utilities, making it the largest shareholder, and argues the Regulated Services Group is a top-tier utility masked by an unregulated Renewable Energy Group that has driven excessive leverage, a dividend cut, and the failed Kentucky Power deal. Starboard demands Algonquin sell all or a substantial majority of the renewables business — including the ~42% Atlantica stake — to bring gross leverage to ~5x, shore up the dividend, and repurchase shares to lift FY2025 EPS to ~75 cents. Pro forma, Algonquin would be greener than peers (one-third renewable generation, no coal vs. 26% peer coal) and uniquely exposed to water utilities (~20% of rate base) that trade at roughly double Electric/Gas multiples. A follow-on separation of the Water Utility could push pro forma EPS to ~90 cents.

SCQA

Situation

Algonquin is a mid-sized North American utility whose Regulated Services Group is a high-quality, fast-growing regulated utility — greener than peers and uniquely exposed to premium-multiple water utilities through ~20% of rate base.

Complication

An unregulated renewables arm has loaded the company with excessive leverage, forced a dividend cut, and — combined with the failed Kentucky Power deal — made AQN uninvestible for traditional utility investors despite the quality of the underlying regulated business.

Resolution

Sell all or a substantial majority of the Renewable Energy Group including the Atlantica stake, cut gross leverage to ~5x, repurchase shares, and preserve optionality to also separate the Water Utility if the premium isn't realized.

Reward

Pro forma FY2025 EPS reaches ~75 cents on the renewables sale, and ~90 cents if the Water Utility is also sold and proceeds largely buy back stock, with a safer dividend and a peer-premium regulated-utility multiple.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Regulated Services Group is top-tier but trades at a discount due to unregulated renewables drag

  2. 2

    Selling renewables cuts leverage, safens dividend, and unlocks peer-premium multiple

  3. 3

    Water Utility (~20% of rate base) trades at ~2x Electric/Gas multiples — a hidden gem

Primary demands

  • Sell all or a substantial majority of the unregulated Renewable Energy Group, including the ~42% stake in Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure
  • Use proceeds to reduce leverage to industry-standard ~5x gross leverage
  • Once leverage target is met, repurchase shares to drive EPS accretion toward ~75 cents in FY2025 EPS
  • Preserve optionality to separate the Regulated Water Utility to capture water-utility premium multiples

KPIs cited

Economic ownership stake
~7.5% of AQN, making Starboard the largest shareholder
Renewable generation share
~1/3 of AQN electric generation capacity vs. peer average of 26% coal
Water Utility share of rate base
~20% of Algonquin's rate base from regulated water, vs. ~0% for peers
Water vs. Electric/Gas utility multiples
Water utilities generally trade at ~2x the multiples of Electric/Gas utilities
Historical rate base growth
8% organic growth FY2017–FY2022 vs. regulated utility peer median of 7%
Target gross leverage
~5x Gross Debt/EBITDA as industry-standard leverage post-divestiture
Pro forma FY2025 EPS
~$0.75 after renewables sale; ~$0.90 if Water Utility also sold with buybacks
Atlantica stake
~42% ownership of Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure PLC included in divestiture plan

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (2)

Notes

Three-page public letter addressed to Chair Ken Moore and Strategic Review Committee Chair Chris Huskilson, CC'd to CEO Banskota and CFO Myers. Starboard discloses it is already AQN's largest shareholder via a recently filed 13D at ~7.5% and references prior private discussions; treated as initial_thesis because this is the first public articulation of the argument. No charts or graphics — plain-text letter on Starboard letterhead with logo only (visual_quality=1). Sum-of-parts framing is implicit in the prose (Regulated Services + Water Utility + Renewable Energy + Atlantica stake), not a visual exhibit. Kentucky Power failed deal is cited as a scar on credibility but without naming specific executives as villains.