Contrarian Corpus
short seller research note initial thesis
2018-02-08 · 17 pages

IQE plc IQE

Muddy Waters is short IQE: the compound-semi maker inflated 2015/2016 net income by 58.5%/25.4% via transactions with its Cardiff University JV — an alter ego, not an arm's-length partner.

N 4 Narrative
V 2 Visual
C 2 Craft
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Thesis

Muddy Waters is short IQE plc, a UK-listed compound-semiconductor materials supplier, arguing the company is an egregious accounting manipulator. At the center of the thesis is Compound Semiconductor Centre (CSC), the 50/50 JV formed with Cardiff University in 2015 that Muddy Waters believes is effectively an IQE alter ego — same management, same Cardiff office, zero patent filings, and a -105.9% gross margin. IQE contributed PP&E and IP to CSC at marks 4.6x book value, then recognized gains and licensing revenue on those transfers, inflating reported net income by 58.5% in 2015 and 25.4% in 2016. A 1H 2017 intangibles spike to £9.6m with suddenly reduced disclosure suggests IQE pivoted to aggressive expense capitalization once CSC's cash was exhausted, while insiders sold £7.8m of shares between May and July 2017.

SCQA

Situation

IQE plc is a UK-listed (AIM, £851m market cap) compound-semiconductor materials supplier whose shares have rallied on strong reported earnings growth since forming a 50/50 joint venture, CSC, with Cardiff University in 2015.

Complication

Muddy Waters finds the CSC transactions lack substance: IQE dominates the JV (same management, same office, no patents), inflating 2015/2016 net income 58.5%/25.4% via PP&E transfers marked at 4.6x carrying value and divergent IP accounting.

Resolution

Muddy Waters is short the stock and calls on IQE to publicly release the independent valuation report underpinning the £12m PP&E mark, and urges shareholders to re-underwrite IQE on financials adjusted to exclude CSC gains and 1H 2017 capitalization.

Reward

No explicit target price, but adjusted 1H 2017 net income is 68.6% below reported; exhaustion of CSC's funding, collapsing JV contribution, and insiders' £7.8m of share sales signal the earnings trajectory since 2015 cannot be sustained.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    IQE's 2015 and 2016 net income overstated by 58.5% and 25.4% via non-substantive CSC joint-venture gains

  2. 2

    CSC is effectively an IQE alter ego — same management, same Cardiff office, zero patents, -105.9% gross margin

  3. 3

    Insiders sold £7.8m of stock in mid-2017 as 'intangible investments' spiked 108% with reduced disclosure

Primary demands

  • Release in full the purportedly independent third-party valuation report supporting the £12.0m PP&E mark transferred to CSC
  • Adjust historical 2015 and 2016 net income downward by 58.5% and 25.4% to exclude non-substantive gains on transactions with CSC
  • Adjust 1H 2017 net income downward by ~£5m (69%) to account for aggressive capitalization of expenses

KPIs cited

2015 net income overstatement
58.5% overstatement vs. Muddy Waters' adjustment (£20.1m reported → £8.4m adjusted)
2016 net income overstatement
25.4% overstatement vs. adjustment (£19.4m reported → £14.5m adjusted)
1H 2017 net income overstatement
68.6% overstatement — ~£5m adjustment for aggressive expense capitalization
PP&E transfer markup
IQE valued PP&E transferred to CSC at 4.6x its £2.6m carrying value (booked £12.0m)
CSC gross margin
-105.9% through 2016 — IQE was CSC's only customer
Intangible investment spike
£9.6m in 1H 2017 vs. £3.5m in 1H 2016 (+108.7%) with disclosure lines collapsed
Insider sales
IQE insiders sold £7.8m of shares (7.18m at avg £1.08) May–July 2017
Insider purchases pre-JV
Insiders bought 20.5m shares at avg £0.13 Oct–Dec 2014, just before CSC transactions began
IP licensing revenue reversal
Reverse £7.07m (2015) and £4.93m (2016) of 100%-margin CSC IP licensing revenue
CSC cash remaining
Only £13,000 in cash at 31 Dec 2016 after Cardiff's £23m investment

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Precedents cited

  • Noble Group Ltd. (prior Muddy Waters short on abusive third-party valuation reports)

Notable slides (5)

Notes

Classic Muddy Waters forensic accounting research note — prose-dense Word-style report (not a slide deck) with inline tables, screenshots of LinkedIn profiles, a hand-drawn-feel 'Suspicious Spike in Investments' chart, and an annotated 'same management / same office' exhibit linking IQE and CSC boards. Thesis is a textbook related-party/alter-ego short: IQE used a 50/50 university JV as an earnings-laundering vehicle. CEO-quote contradiction uses IQE's own 'highest standards of corporate governance, transparency, and integrity' line against them. No explicit price target — Muddy Waters reframes financials and lets the restated numbers do the work. References ShadowFall's earlier (Feb 2 2018) IQE report but positions its research as independent and broader.