ACM Research, Inc. ACMR
ACMR trades at 1.1x revenue while its 82%-owned Shanghai subsidiary ACMS trades at 6x — a sum-of-parts gap that implies a 10-bagger as China's WFE self-sufficiency drive accelerates.
Thesis
ACM Research is the leading Chinese supplier of wafer cleaning equipment, having grown revenue from under $30M in 2016 to $730M LTM as Beijing channels capex toward domestic WFE national champions to circumvent US export restrictions. Despite 37% 2024E revenue growth, 22% EBITDA margins, and a profile comparable to US peers like Lam Research and Applied Materials, ACMR's NASDAQ shares trade at just 1.1x 2025E revenue and 10.3x P/E versus 5-8x revenue and 20-37x P/E for global and Chinese WFE peers. The dislocation is starkest at home: ACMR's 82%-owned Shanghai-listed subsidiary ACMS sports a $5.9B market cap implying $4.9B for ACMR's stake — over 300% above the parent's $1.2B value. Six independent valuation methods (ACMS look-through, peer multiples, DCF, 2028E EPS at 30x) converge on $63-$104 per share, averaging $81 versus $17.48 today.
SCQA
ACM Research is a US-listed, Shanghai-operated supplier of semiconductor wafer cleaning tools — China's domestic leader at ~14% national share — with an 82%-owned Shanghai-listed subsidiary, ACMS, that holds nearly all the operating business.
ACMR trades at 1.1x 2025E revenue and 5.4x EBITDA — a 50-85% discount to global, Japanese, US small-cap and Chinese WFE medians — punished by undifferentiated China-risk sentiment despite being a strategic beneficiary of Beijing's accelerating WFE self-sufficiency push.
Management can monetise the ACMS stake via partial sale + dividend or buyback, pursue a Hong Kong dual listing, take the company private at a premium, or accept an acquisition offer from larger Chinese WFE peers AMEC or Naura.
Six valuation methodologies — ACMS look-through ($73), peer revenue multiples ($72-$104), discounted 2028E EPS at 30x P/E ($63), and a 10-year DCF ($72) — average to $81 per share, implying 362% upside (a 10-bagger base case).
The three reasons
- 1
ACMR's 82%-owned Shanghai sub ACMS trades at 6x revenue; ACMR at 1.1x — implies $73 vs. $17.48
- 2
Chinese WFE self-sufficiency went 4% (2019) to 17% (2024), heading to 36% by 2026
- 3
Six valuation methods converge $63-$104 fair value, averaging $81 — a 362% upside 10-bagger
Primary demands
- Re-rate ACMR to peer multiples (5-8x revenue) given comparable growth and margin profile
- Unlock the ACMS holding-company discount via partial ACMS share sale + dividend or buyback
- Consider Hong Kong dual-listing or going-private at a premium to current price
- Be receptive to acquisition by larger Chinese WFE players (AMEC, Naura)
KPIs cited
Pattern membership
Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.
Precedents cited
- Applied Materials / Semitool acquisition
- Lam Research / SEZ acquisition
- Lam Research / Novellus Systems acquisition
- Hong Kong-listed China holding-company / mainland subsidiary structures (precedent for narrow holdco discount)
- Chinese national-champion playbook in solar cells and electric vehicles
Notable slides (5)
Notes
Atypical Kerrisdale: this is a LONG thesis, not their usual short-seller exposé. Genre is institutional research note (28pp + disclaimer), Word-style prose with embedded tables and one bar chart, no slide-deck design. Notable rhetorical moves: explicit rebuttal of J Capital's 2020 short report; punchy one-liners ('Yes, $73.', 'Wild.', 'We're fully, not semi, excited'); sum-of-parts arithmetic anchored on the ACMS Shanghai-listed sibling. Date inferred from cover ('January 2025') and stock price footnote 'as of 1/29/25'.