Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck initial thesis
2018-04-23 · 43 pages

Hyundai Motor Group

HMG's Mobis-Glovis spinoff is suboptimal; a true holding-company structure plus KRW 6tn buybacks, a 40-50% payout, and independent boards close peer discounts and deliver 15%+ upside.

Thesis

Elliott, holding over 1.5% of each Hyundai Motor Group affiliate (Mobis, HMC, Kia), argues that HMG's March 2018 restructuring plan — spinning Mobis's module and after-sales parts businesses into Glovis — is suboptimal because it creates an inefficient four-layer structure, undervalues the spun-off business at 8.5x P/E versus 16.4x for residual Mobis, and leaves KRW 1.8 trillion of tax leakage on the table. Mobis, HMC and Kia trade at 51-73% discounts to global peers, reflecting persistent underperformance, overcapitalized balance sheets, weak payouts, and opaque governance. Elliott's 'Accelerate Hyundai Proposals' demand a true holding-company structure (merge Mobis+HMC, then demerge into Holdco/Opco), KRW 6 trillion of capital returns at both HMC and Mobis, a 40-50% payout policy, and three new independent directors per board — generating at least 15% re-rating on the combined HMC-Mobis entity alone.

SCQA

Situation

Hyundai Motor Group is a top-tier global automaker — 4th-largest OEM, 8% global market share doubled from 4%, 7% unit CAGR 2001-2017 — organized through opaque circular shareholdings across Mobis, HMC and Kia.

Complication

HMG's March 2018 plan spins Mobis's profitable module and after-sales parts businesses into Glovis at a stingy 8.5x P/E, keeps four subsidiary layers, leaks KRW 1.8 trillion in tax, and ignores balance-sheet, payout, and governance failings.

Resolution

Adopt the Accelerate Hyundai Proposals: merge Mobis+HMC then demerge into Holdco/Opco, return KRW 6 trillion of excess cash at each of HMC and Mobis, commit to a 40-50% payout policy, and add three independent directors per board.

Reward

A holding-company structure plus after-sales margin uplift delivers a 15% re-rating on the combined HMC-Mobis alone, closes Mobis's 57% and Kia's 73% EV/EBITDA discounts to peers, and unlocks trapped value across the group.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    HMG's spin-off values Mobis's A/S business at 8.5x P/E vs 16.4x for residual Mobis

  2. 2

    Mobis trades at 57% EV/EBITDA discount and Kia at 73% to global auto peers

  3. 3

    Mobis+HMC merger plus holdco re-rating delivers 15% upside on the combined entity alone

Primary demands

  • Recast the HMG Restructuring Plan into a true holding-company structure: merge Mobis + HMC into 'Hyundai Mergeco', then demerge into Hyundai Motor Holdco and Hyundai Motor Opco
  • Return up to KRW 6.0 trillion of excess cash at each of Mobis and HMC and cancel all existing and future treasury shares
  • Commit to a clear 40-50% of net income payout policy (cash dividends + buybacks) at Mobis, HMC and Kia
  • Add three independent directors with international/sector-diverse backgrounds at each board and amend articles of incorporation (cumulative voting, independent M&A review committee, Director Compensation Committee)
  • Ensure a transparent process and fair-value realization for Kia's stake in Mobis

KPIs cited

Mobis EV/EBITDA discount to peers
Forward EV/EBITDA 2.8x vs peers ~6.5x — 57% discount; ex-cash P/E 5.3x — 51% discount
HMC EV/EBITDA discount to peers
Forward EV/EBITDA 2.0x — 26% discount; ex-cash P/E 2.9x — 24% discount
Kia EV/EBITDA discount to peers
Forward EV/EBITDA 0.7x — 73% discount; ex-cash P/E 1.4x — 63% discount
Implied P/E on Mobis spun-off business
8.5x FY17 vs 16.4x for remaining Mobis, despite 24% ROE (spun-off) vs 10% (remaining)
Tax leakage NPV under HMG plan
KRW 1.8tn (~US$1.7bn) PV on HMC/Kia dividends — 7% of pre-announcement Mobis market cap
HMC excess cash
Net cash KRW 16.5tn = 17.5% of assets vs peers' 11.1%; ~KRW 6.0tn excess = 18% of market cap
Mobis excess cash
Net cash 14.3% of assets vs peers' -9.0%; ~KRW 6.0tn excess = 26% of market cap
Dividend payout ratio (2017)
Mobis 21%, HMC 25%, Kia 17% of net income — 19-34pts below global auto peers
5-year relative dollarized TSR vs peers
Mobis -169%, HMC -76%, Kia -105%
Board independence
HMC 44% / Kia 33% / Mobis 33% independent directors vs Daimler 100%, GM 90%, Ford 79%; all-Korean boards, no gender diversity
Pro forma OP margin from Mobis-HMC merger
27% uplift to 6.8% pro forma — in line with 6.8% peer average; implies 15% valuation upside
Share-price reaction to HMG plan (2 days)
Mobis -8.4%, HMC -5.3%, Kia -6.1%
Mobis A/S operating margin
Consistently >25% — division being handed to Glovis at a stingy implied multiple
HMG global market share & scale
Doubled from 4% to 8% (2001-2017) at 7% unit-sales CAGR; 4th-largest OEM by unit sales

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns. Orange cells are present in this deck; neutral cells are not.

Precedents cited

  • Samsung Electronics Value Enhancement Proposal (Elliott, October 2016)

Composition what's on the 43 slides

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Notes

First public Elliott presentation on Hyundai Motor Group — the 'Accelerate Hyundai' campaign (acceleratehyundai.com), companion to a separately filed Letter to the directors of Mobis, HMC and Kia. Tone is unusually collaborative for an Elliott deck: opens by 'welcoming' HMG's own 28-March-2018 restructuring initiative before arguing it is suboptimal, then proposes a 4-step alternative (Merger / Demerger / Tender offer / Optimization). Cites Elliott's 2016 Samsung Electronics Value Enhancement campaign as Korean-market track-record proof point. Page 20 stacks third-party critic quotes (Reuters, FT, Morgan Stanley, JPM, Breakingviews, Mirae, CIMB) that echo Elliott's Glovis-merger critique — functions as a CEO-quote-contradiction surrogate. No named villain: the critique stays institutional/structural and does not attack the Chung founding family by name. Stake disclosed as 'over 1.5%' in each of Mobis/HMC/Kia (recorded as 1.5). Target is a group so target_ticker left null; primary target is Hyundai Mobis (012330.KS). Presentation_date inferred from 20-April-2018 data cutoff in disclaimer and 4/19/2018 chart x-axis; filename month is 'April 2018' with no day. Peer-gap chart sequence on pages 24-29 is a 6-slide TSR/multiples gap spine.