Contrarian Corpus
activist conference presentation initial thesis
2023-10-13 · 70 pages

Multiple (GoDaddy, News Corp, Fortrea) GDDY, NWSA, FTRE

Starboard pitches three activist ideas at the 2023 13D Monitor Summit — GoDaddy margin expansion, News Corp digital-real-estate separation, and Fortrea CRO profitability fix — each with 50%+ upside.

N 4 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 3 Craft
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Thesis

This 2023 Active-Passive Investor Summit deck presents three simultaneous Starboard ideas. First, GoDaddy (EV $14B, 11x P/FCF) should expand Adj. EBITDA margins from 28% to 33%+ exiting 2024 by cutting bloated Tech & Development spend (20.9% of revenue vs. flat revenue growth), reaching 40% growth-plus-profitability and $10+ FCF per share in FY25. Second, News Corp trades near $22 versus a ~$33 sum-of-parts: its 61% stake in REA Group alone is worth ~$8B, implying the rest of the portfolio (Dow Jones, HarperCollins, Foxtel, News Media, Move) trades at just 4x FY24 EBITDA — Starboard demands separation of the Digital Real Estate assets. Third, Fortrea, recently spun from LabCorp, runs 13% EBITDA margins versus 18% peer median; CEO Tom Pike (who drove 425bps at IQVIA/Quintiles) can close the gap for 60-144% share-price upside to $47-72.

SCQA

Situation

Starboard presents three undervalued public companies at the 2023 13D Monitor Active-Passive Investor Summit: GoDaddy (domains/hosting market leader), News Corp (diversified global media), and Fortrea (contract research organization recently spun-out from LabCorp).

Complication

All three underperform peers on margins or trade below intrinsic value: GoDaddy's growth-plus-profitability has declined 700bps since 2021, News Corp's REA Group stake masks a cheap $4B RemainCo at 4x EBITDA, and Fortrea's 13% EBITDA margin trails the 18% peer median.

Resolution

Starboard demands GoDaddy expand EBITDA margins from 28% to 33%+ via Tech & Development cost cuts, News Corp separate its Digital Real Estate assets to force sum-of-parts recognition, and Fortrea close the margin gap under proven CRO operator Tom Pike.

Reward

Execution delivers $10+ FCF per share and a 7x multiple re-rating at GoDaddy, a ~$33 sum-of-parts value (~50% upside) at News Corp, and an implied $47-$72 share price at Fortrea (60%-144% upside from $29.46).

The three reasons

  1. 1

    GoDaddy can expand Adj. EBITDA margins from 28% to 33%+ and reach $10+ FCF per share

  2. 2

    News Corp's non-REA businesses trade at just 4x EBITDA; separating digital real estate unlocks ~50% upside to $33

  3. 3

    Fortrea's 13% EBITDA margin trails the 18% peer median; Tom Pike (ex-IQVIA) can drive 60-144% upside to $47-72

Primary demands

  • GoDaddy: expand Adj. EBITDA margins from 28% to 33%+ exiting 2024 via Tech & Development cost rationalization and G&A/marketing discipline
  • GoDaddy: target 40% growth-plus-profitability by Q4'24, unlocking $10+ FCF per share in FY25
  • News Corp: separate the Digital Real Estate assets (REA Group stake, Move/realtor.com) to unlock sum-of-parts value
  • News Corp: re-rate the remaining businesses (Dow Jones, HarperCollins, News Media, Foxtel) trading today at only 4x FY24 EBITDA
  • Fortrea: close the 500bps EBITDA margin gap vs. peer median (13% vs. 18%) under CEO Tom Pike
  • Fortrea: execute on post-spin operational discipline to achieve FY22-style profitability by end of FY24

KPIs cited

GoDaddy growth + profitability
Declined 700bps from 38% (FY21) to 31% (FY23E); target 40% exiting Q4'24
GoDaddy Adj. EBITDA margin
28% exiting 2023 → 33%+ exiting 2024 target
GoDaddy Tech & Development expense
20.9% of revenue Q2'23 annualized vs. 16.3% in FY18, while revenue growth fell from 19.2% to 3.2%
GoDaddy FCF per share
$7.25 FY23E → $10+ by Q4'24 annualized
GoDaddy P/FY23 FCF
11.0x vs. 17.7x peer median
GoDaddy total customers
21.0M vs. Wix 6.1M, Ionos ~6.0M, Squarespace 4.3M (3-5x peers)
GoDaddy 2023 YTD share price
Flat (0%) vs. Nasdaq Internet +37%, S&P 500 +13% — 37% underperformance
News Corp enterprise value
$12B at 7.9x FY24E EBITDA
News Corp REA Group stake
61% ownership of $13B market cap = ~$8B
News Corp RemainCo ex-REA EV multiple
$4B / FY24 EBITDA = 4.0x
News Corp estimated SOTP assets ex-REA
$11B+ vs. $4B implied today
News Corp sum-of-parts per share
~$33 vs. current ~$22 (~50% upside)
REA Group revenue CAGR
10% CAGR FY15-FY23, ~54-58% EBITDA margin, #1 in Australia at 3.3x nearest competitor audience
Fortrea enterprise value
$4B at 12x FY24 EBITDA ($330M consensus)
Fortrea FY22 Adj. EBITDA margin
13% vs. 19% peer median (ICLR most comparable)
Fortrea FY23 guidance margin
~9% (~400bps below FY22); FY24 exit target ~13%, ~500bps below peer scale benchmark
Fortrea CRO market share
7% (#6 of top 7 CROs controlling 80%+ of market)
CRO industry growth
~7% CAGR 2022-2027; biopharma R&D 5% growth, outsource penetration +60bp/yr
CRO precedent transaction EBITDA multiples
Median 14x (range 10x-25x); Thermo/PPD at 23x, ICON/PRA at 25x
Fortrea implied share price
$47 (60% upside) at 13% margins, $72 (144% upside) at 18% peer margins
Tom Pike track record at Quintiles/IQVIA
Expanded margins from 11% (FY12) to 15% (LTM Sep-2016) — 425bps; 48% outperformance vs. S&P

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Precedents cited

  • Starboard's 2022 Summit picks: Splunk (+100%), Salesforce (+39%), Wix (+12%)
  • Tom Pike transformation of IQVIA/Quintiles (425bps margin expansion, 48% outperformance 2013-2016)
  • LabCorp / Covance (2015, 14x)
  • PE Consortium / PPDI (2017, 13x)
  • Pamplona Capital / PAREXEL (2017, 15x)
  • INC Research / inVentiv (2017, 14x)
  • LabCorp / Chiltern (2017, 13x)
  • ICON / PRA Health (2021, 25x)
  • EQT / Parexel (2021, 20x)
  • Thermo Fisher / PPD (2021, 23x)
  • Triton Advisers / Clinigen Group (2022, 15x)
  • PE Consortium / Syneos Health (2023, 10x)

Notable slides (5)

Notes

Filename labels this a 'Fortrea' deck but it is actually Starboard's 2023 13D Monitor Active-Passive Investor Summit portfolio presentation covering three distinct ideas: GoDaddy (pp. 6-29), News Corp (pp. 31-51), and Fortrea (pp. 53-68). Opens with a rare mea-pre-culpa scorecard of prior year's picks (Splunk +100%, Salesforce +39%, Wix +12% vs. S&P +20%) on pp. 2-5. Classified as initial_thesis because all three are freshly-presented ideas at this annual summit, but note the format is a conference showcase rather than a single-target campaign deck. No stake disclosed in this document. Tone is collaborative/analytical throughout — Tom Pike is cited approvingly, not attacked. Tom Pike CEO quote on p.63 is supportive (track record) not contradictory. Cover cites 10XEBITDA.com watermark source.