Contrarian Corpus
activist letter follow up
2023-09-12 · 8 pages

GoDaddy Inc. GDDY

GoDaddy has missed its 2022 Investor Day targets as Tech & Dev expenses ballooned; cutting costs to a 40% growth+profitability exit rate and adding a Starboard director unlocks a ~40% valuation re-rating.

N 4 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 2 Craft
Original source ↗

Thesis

Starboard, owning 7.8% of GoDaddy as its third-largest shareholder, argues that management has fallen well short of the 10% revenue / 15% Adj. EBITDA / 20% FCF-per-share CAGR targets laid out at the 2022 Investor Day, with 2024 consensus implying shortfalls of roughly $500M revenue, $100M EBITDA and $150M FCF. The core issue is a deteriorating growth+profitability metric, expected at ~31% in 2023 versus 38% in 2021 and below peers Wix and Squarespace, driven largely by Technology & Development expenses that grew at a 16% CAGR against 11% revenue growth and now consume 20.9% of revenue. Starboard wants GoDaddy to commit to a 40%+ growth+profitability exit rate in 2024 through aggressive cost rationalization, lifting Adjusted EBITDA above $1.5B. At 11x FCF versus peers at 17.9x, closing the gap — or pursuing a sale if the Board refuses engagement — offers substantial upside.

SCQA

Situation

GoDaddy is a high-quality, infrastructure-like one-stop shop for micro and small businesses seeking a web presence; Starboard, owning 7.8%, is the third-largest shareholder and has engaged privately with the Board for 18 months.

Complication

GoDaddy has missed its 2022 Investor Day targets on revenue, EBITDA and FCF while Technology & Development expenses ballooned to 20.9% of revenue, dragging the growth+profitability metric to a multi-year low of ~31% versus peers.

Resolution

Commit to a 40%+ growth+profitability exit rate in 2024 via aggressive Technology & Development cost cuts, add a Starboard representative to the Board, and keep a sale of the Company on the table if targets are missed.

Reward

Closing the ~40% FCF multiple discount — from today's 11x toward the peer median of 17.9x (with a pro forma multiple of just 7x) — implies material re-rating and significant shareholder value creation.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    2024 consensus implies GoDaddy will miss Investor Day targets by >$500M revenue, >$100M EBITDA, >$150M FCF

  2. 2

    Tech & Development expenses grew at 16% CAGR vs. 11% revenue CAGR, ballooning to 20.9% of revenue

  3. 3

    GDDY trades at 11x 2023E FCF versus peer median 17.9x — an almost 40% discount

Primary demands

  • Commit to a 40%+ growth+profitability metric (revenue growth + Adj. EBITDA margin) exit rate by end of 2024
  • Rationalize Technology & Development expenses, which have grown faster than revenue and reached 20.9% of revenue
  • Grant Starboard direct board representation after 18 months of rejected private requests
  • Remain open to alternative value creation, including a potential sale of the Company, if targets are missed

KPIs cited

Revenue CAGR 2022-2024 target vs. actual
10%+ Investor Day target vs. decelerating growth; 2024 consensus $4,573M vs. $5,079M implied target
Adj. EBITDA 2024 target vs. consensus
$1,327M Investor Day target vs. $1,211M consensus — >$100M miss
FCF 2024 target vs. consensus
$1,300M+ Investor Day target vs. $1,135M consensus — >$150M miss
Growth + profitability metric
38% (2021) → 32% (2022) → 31% (2023E) → 33% (2024E); multi-year low vs. peers expanding
Technology & Development expenses
$434M (2018) → $877M Q2'23 annualized; 16.3% → 20.9% of revenue; 16% CAGR vs. 11% revenue CAGR
T&D headcount growth since 2018
Grown by more than 50%
Price / 2023E FCF multiple
GDDY 11x vs. peer median 17.9x; pro forma ~7x — ~40% discount
YTD 2023 share price performance
GDDY ~0% vs. Nasdaq Internet 45%, Squarespace 42%, Wix 21%, S&P 500 16%
Q4 2023 Adj. EBITDA margin commitment
28% margin on 7% revenue growth = 35% combined metric
2024 exit run-rate EBITDA goal
>$1.5B Adjusted EBITDA at 7-8% revenue growth and 32-33% margins

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (5)

Notes

Public escalation letter after 18 months of private engagement; Starboard discloses 7.8% stake as third-largest shareholder. Core rhetorical device is 'promised vs. delivered' (Investor Day targets vs. 2023/2024 consensus) combined with peer-gap framing on the growth+profitability metric. Signed by Peter A. Feld, Managing Member. Letter format with embedded institutional charts — not a full deck. No explicit precedents cited; alludes generically to Starboard's 'long history of investing in the technology sector'. Sale-of-company floated as fallback, not primary demand.