Contrarian Corpus
short seller short deck follow up
2017-06-05 · 12 pages

Asanko Gold Inc. AKG

Asanko's reassurances on Nkran are 'puppies and rainbows': fresh drone images show wall failures, reserve accounting is non-compliant, and insider share counts don't reconcile with management's 'never sold' claim.

N 4 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 3 Craft
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Thesis

Muddy Waters' follow-up deck on Asanko Gold (AKG) poses six pointed questions to management after its initial short thesis. Recent May 28, 2017 drone images of the Nkran pit show west-wall failure in the transition zone and fresh cracking on the east wall, contradicting management's dismissal of the $75-115 million pushback cost MW estimated. MW flags non-compliant practices — including inferred ounces booked into reserve depletion in February 2017 and the quiet removal of high/medium/low stockpile disclosures in Q1 2017. MW also highlights an insider-ownership gap: Highland Park's original 9.4m-share stake has become ~3.1m reported shares for Breese and Steyn even as IR claims they 'have not sold any Asanko shares.' With five or six wall failures since 2015 and the latest one bigger, MW asks whether the geo-technical designs and MREs are flawed or simply ignored.

SCQA

Situation

Asanko Gold operates the Nkran open-pit gold mine in Ghana and has publicly dismissed Muddy Waters' earlier concerns about pit stability, reserves, stockpile disclosures, and insider ownership.

Complication

May 28, 2017 drone images show active west- and east-wall failures at Nkran, reserve depletion uses non-compliant inferred ounces, stockpile disclosures quietly disappeared in Q1 2017, and insider share counts don't reconcile with management's 'no sales' claim.

Resolution

Management must answer six specific questions covering pushback capex guidance, compliance of reserve accounting, insider share movements, stockpile disclosures, publication of MRE underlying data, and whether designs are flawed or deviated from.

Reward

Honest answers would vindicate MW's estimated $75-115 million Nkran pushback cost and expose whether the mine plan, reserves, and insider narrative are overstated — supporting the short case.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Drone images show active cracking on both Nkran pit walls contradicting management's reassurances

  2. 2

    Management depleted reserves using inferred ounces, a non-compliant practice

  3. 3

    Insider share ownership collapsed from 9.4m to ~3.1m shares despite claims of no selling

Primary demands

  • Disclose full pushback cost expectations at the Nkran pit
  • Explain inclusion of inferred ounces in reserve depletion (non-compliant)
  • Clarify whether Breese and Steyn sold down their Highland Park stakes
  • Restore disclosure of high/medium/low stockpile sizes and grades
  • Publish all 3-D mine models, drill data, parameters and constraints underpinning the MREs
  • Reconcile geo-technical designs/MREs with the growing frequency and size of wall failures

KPIs cited

Nkran pushback capex estimate
MW range of $75-115 million vs. management's denial of any need
Highland Park original stake
$32.5 million = 9,443,500 shares at market
Current management/directors/officers ownership
2.18%, with Steyn 2.4m and Breese 680,000 shares (~3.1m total)
Wall failures since mining start (2015)
Five or six new failures, with the latest materially bigger
Reserve depletion methodology (Feb 2017)
Included inferred ore and ounces — non-compliant

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (6)

Notes

Short follow-up to Muddy Waters' prior Asanko thesis. Structured as six management questions, each paired with satirical stock 'puppies and rainbows' imagery to mock management's optimism. Distinctive rhetorical device: direct drone images of active Nkran wall failures dated May 28, 2017 used as primary evidence. No explicit stake/target price disclosed. Ticker AKG listed on NYSE MKT/TSX.