Contrarian Corpus
Muddy Waters vs. NQ Mobile Inc.

NQ Mobile Inc. · NQ

8 decks published between 2013-10-24 and 2014-07-06 — 138 pages, 138 analysed slides total.

initial thesis follow up

Timeline

Each deck in chronological order — click to open. This is the story of the campaign as it unfolded.

  1. 2013-10-24 initial thesis

    2013 10 MW_NQ_10242013

    81pp · research_note

    NQ Mobile is a 'China Fraud 2.0': 72%+ of China revenue is fictitious, real market share is 1.4% not 55%, and the $127.9M cash balance is likely forged — target price under $1.

    N 4 V 2 C 2
  2. 2013-10-29 follow up

    2013 10 MW_NQ_10292013

    11pp · research_note

    NQ Mobile's Oct 25 rebuttal of Muddy Waters' fraud report contained ten provable lies — Yidatong is NQ, revenue and market share are fabricated; reiterating price target under $1.

    N 4 V 2 C 2
  3. 2013-11-06 follow up

    2013 11 MW_NQ_11062013

    16pp · research_note

    NQ Mobile's largest purported revenue source, Yidatong, is a controlled shell whose offices, tax filings, and carrier records all contradict NQ's story — we maintain a <$1 target.

    N 4 V 2 C 1
  4. 2013-11-12 follow up

    2013 11 MW_NQ_11122013

    6pp · research_note

    NQ Mobile's credible-looking US management is a veneer hiding a $1.1bn fraud — Mathison conceals JCAP ties, Co-CEO Khan knows nothing, and pre-IPO partners include a convicted racketeer.

    N 4 V 1 C 1
  5. 2013-12-19 follow up

    2013 12 MW_OfferToNQIC_12192013

    9pp · letter

    NQ Mobile's independent-committee fraud probe is structurally compromised; Muddy Waters offers to fund Plante & Moran to audit the auditors and protect investors from another China-fraud whitewash.

    N 4 V 2 C 2
  6. 2014-04-13 follow up

    2014 04 MW_NQ_04132014

    7pp · research_note

    NQ Mobile's surprise Q4 loss and negative cash flow under PwC's tougher audit confirm Muddy Waters' fraud thesis: revenue, acquisitions, and cash balances are all fabricated.

    N 4 V 2 C 1
  7. 2014-06-04 follow up

    2014 06 MW_NQ_06042014

    3pp · research_note

    NQ's own investigation committee confirmed widespread data tampering — the same pattern that preceded Sino-Forest's collapse — so Muddy Waters maintains its fraud rating.

    N 3 V 2 C 1
  8. 2014-07-06 follow up

    2014 07 MW_NQ_07062014

    5pp · research_note

    NQ's July 3 disclosures vindicate the fraud thesis: the audit chair resigned, PwC will never sign off, and insiders front-ran the news by dumping stock.