Contrarian Corpus
short seller research note follow up
2014-07-06 · 5 pages

NQ Mobile NQ

NQ's July 3 disclosures vindicate the fraud thesis: the audit chair resigned, PwC will never sign off, and insiders front-ran the news by dumping stock.

N 4 Narrative
V 2 Visual
C 2 Craft
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Thesis

Muddy Waters maintains its fraud rating on NQ Mobile after NQ's July 3, 2014 admissions that audit-committee chairwoman Ying Han had resigned and that PwC Zhongtian had requested a broader audit scope. The note argues the disclosures were deliberately delayed to let China-side insiders dump shares, citing unexplained declines of 5.3%, 4.5% and 4.7% on June 25-27 on volume nearly 2x the 90-day average. Muddy Waters contends PwC will never issue an unqualified 2013 audit opinion; the 'expanded scope' language is a pretext to change auditors after NQ's 20-F blew April 30 and May 15 deadlines. Han's departure discredits the independent investigation that cleared NQ, and CEO Khan's and IR head Mathison's prior reassurances are cast as part of a pattern of 'reptilian pumping' — bullish releases, fake partnerships and corrupt subsidiary sales — designed to prop up the stock while insiders exit.

SCQA

Situation

NQ Mobile is a US-listed Chinese mobile-internet company that Muddy Waters publicly accused of fraud in October 2013; its 2013 20-F audit by PwC Zhongtian was already 64 days past due by July 2014.

Complication

On July 3, 2014 NQ admitted its audit-committee chairwoman had resigned and PwC had requested a broader scope — admissions Muddy Waters says were delayed so China insiders could dump stock and disguise that PwC will never sign off.

Resolution

No explicit corporate demand; Muddy Waters reiterates its short thesis and urges investors to treat NQ's disclosures as further deception, expecting NQ to fire PwC and continue pumping the stock while insiders exit.

Reward

No explicit price target. Implied downside: stock closed at $4.58 vs. April 30 post-pump level of $12.36, and Muddy Waters expects further erosion as the audit fails and cash is drained through corrupt acquisitions.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Audit chair Ying Han's resignation exposes the 'independent' investigation as corrupt

  2. 2

    PwC will never issue an unqualified 2013 audit opinion; scope-expansion claim is a pretext to fire PwC

  3. 3

    NQ delayed the announcement so China-side insiders could dump stock ahead of the news

KPIs cited

Stock decline June 25-27, 2014
5.3%, 4.5% and 4.7% on consecutive days with no news
Trading volume June 25-27
9.8M ADS/day average vs. 5.2M/day 90-day average prior to June 25
20-F filing status
64 days past due at time of PwC scope-expansion claim; blew April 30 and May 15 deadlines
Stock reaction to June 4 investigation release
+30.9% on the day
Stock reaction to April 30 press release
+10.8% to $12.36
Stock reaction to May 30 FL Mobile sale / guidance raise
+11.8% to $7.59
Current NQ price
$4.58 (prior Friday close), 37% of April 30 peak

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Precedents cited

  • Muddy Waters Dec 19, 2013 open letter to NQ's independent committee
  • Eight other China companies where purportedly independent committees exonerated management
  • J Capital Research 'Time to Quit' report on NQ

Notable slides (3)

Notes

Short text-only follow-up memo (not a deck) in Muddy Waters' signature Word-style format with header logo and footer pagination. Follow-up to MW's October 24, 2013 initial NQ fraud report. Central visual is a single 'Historical Audit Calendar' timeline on p.3 contrasting normal audit cadence with NQ's missed deadlines. Contains a small trading-volume table on p.2 highlighting insider-dumping days. Rhetoric is sharp ('reptilian pumping', 'sinking NQ ship', 'lifeboats for themselves'). CEO quote contradiction on p.4 (Khan's April 10 assurance about April 30 20-F deadline). No formal ask or price target — thesis is simply 'maintaining fraud rating'.