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Campaigns / Pershing Square → Herbalife Ltd.
Pershing Square vs. Herbalife Ltd.

Herbalife Ltd. · HLF

9 decks published between 2012-12-20 and 2017-05-11 — 827 pages, 491 analysed slides total. Outcome: lost.

initial thesis follow up

Timeline

Each deck in chronological order — click to open. This is the story of the campaign as it unfolded.

  1. 2012-12-20 initial thesis

    2012 12 Pershing Square Herbalife Presentation Dec 2012

    334pp · full_deck

    Herbalife is an illegal pyramid scheme: distributors profit from recruiting not retail, the top 1% captures 88% of rewards, and the stock is ultimately worth zero.

    N 5 V 4 C 4
    ⌂ ” ⚑
  2. 2012-12-20 initial thesis

    Who wants to be a Millionaire

    334pp · full_deck

    Herbalife is an illegal pyramid scheme masquerading as a nutrition company; its $4.8bn market cap rests on recruiting, not real retail demand, and the stock should go to zero.

    N 5 V 3 C 4
    ⌂ ” ⚑
  3. 2014-11-06 follow up

    2014 11 Letter_to_Pamela_Jones_Harbour11.6.14

    19pp · letter

    Pershing urges Herbalife's first-ever Chief Compliance Officer to build a genuinely independent program, because a 4-million-distributor pyramid cannot survive real enforcement of its own rules.

    N 4 V 2 C 1
    ” ⚑
  4. 2015-02-26 follow up

    2015 02 Former_Herbalife_Distributors_in_Their_Own_Words_Feb27_Espanol

    10pp · other

    Herbalife is a pyramid scheme built on recruitment, not retail: former distributors describe losing thousands while 88% of participants earn no commission.

    N 4 V 1 C 1
    ” ⚑
  5. 2015-06-26 follow up

    2015 06 Letter to Michael Johnson 6.26.15

    2pp · letter

    A leaked 71-minute video shows Herbalife CEO Michael Johnson admitting the business is a 'lottery ticket' with 'pyramiding' — Pershing demands he release the tape and the distributor failure data.

    N 3 V 1 C 1
    ” ⚑
  6. 2015-08-01 follow up

    2015 08 HerbalifeInChina

    63pp · full_deck

    Herbalife's fastest-growing segment — China, ~10% of sales — operates as an illegal pyramid scheme, with royalties disguised in SEC filings as 'China Sales Employees' SG&A to hide identical multi-level compensation.

    N 5 V 2 C 2
    ” ⚑
  7. 2016-07-15 follow up

    2016 07 Pershing Square Issues Statement Regarding Herbalife

    2pp · press_release
    N 2 V 1 C 1
  8. 2016-07-20 follow up

    2016 07 Pershing Square Capital Management L.P. Q2 Conference Call Presentation

    48pp · conference_presentation

    The FTC's July 2016 Herbalife complaint and forced restructuring vindicate Pershing's pyramid-scheme short thesis; normalized EPS collapses to $1.42–$2.22, far below the ~$65 share price.

    N 5 V 3 C 3
    ” ⇌ ⚑
  9. 2017-05-11 follow up

    2017 05 Herbalife Exhibit May 11 2017

    15pp · full_deck

    Post-2012-short results confirm Herbalife's pyramid thesis: individual markets pop-and-drop, Q1'17 China growth is a pull-forward illusion, and questionable EPS add-backs mask structural decline.