Pershing Square

Pershing Square Holdings PSH.L

PSH NAV grew 20.9% and TSR 33.9% in 2025, beating S&P, FTSE 100 and HFRX Activist indices

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. HHH

HHH stuck at ~40% NAV discount with no take-private bidder after 284 investors approached

Pershing Square Holdings (self) PSH.NA / PSHD.LN

PSH trades at a 30% discount to NAV despite 22.9% 7-year compound NAV returns

Uber Technologies UBER

29x P/E understates a 30%+ EPS grower; share price likely to more than double in 3-4 years

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac FNMA/FMCC

Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac (GSEs) FNMA / FMCC

Releasing GSEs from conservatorship could generate ~$300bn for taxpayers via Treasury warrants

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac FNMA / FMCC

Treasury's warrants and residual stake could generate ~$300bn for taxpayers over time

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac FNMA/FMCC

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. HHH

14-year total return of only 35% (2.2% CAGR) shows market refuses to recognize HHH's value

Pershing Square Holdings (own closed-end fund review) PSH

PSH trades at a 27% discount to NAV despite 31.2% 5-yr compound NAV return

Pershing Square Holdings (fund-level annual update) PSH

PSH outperformed S&P 500 by 930bps in 2022 thanks to interest-rate hedge

Netflix NFLX

Ad-tier pivot makes subscriber growth, margins, and capital intensity unpredictable

Pershing Square Holdings (fund-level annual update; covers portfolio including Lowe's, Universal Music Group, Hilton, Chipotle, Restaurant Brands, Howard Hughes, Domino's, Netflix, PSTH) PSH

PSH delivered 26.9% NAV return in 2021 and 50.1% 3-yr CAGR, outperforming activist and equity hedge indices

Netflix, Inc. NFLX

Market overreacted to weak subscriber guidance, creating an attractive entry point

Pershing Square Holdings (own fund) PSH

PSH returned 70.2% NAV / 84.8% TSR in 2020, beating S&P by 5,180 bps

Pershing Square Holdings (fund) — portfolio includes Agilent, Berkshire Hathaway, Chipotle, Hilton, Restaurant Brands, Lowe's, Howard Hughes, Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac PSH

PSH delivered 58.1% NAV return in 2019, beating S&P by 2,660bps — return to roots is working

United Technologies; ADP UTX; ADP

PSH exited United Technologies as of June 10, 2019

Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. (annual portfolio update; covers CMG, ADP, QSR, LOW, SBUX, HLT, UTX, HHC, FNMA/FMCC) PSH

PSH trades at 27% discount to NAV despite 13.8% net CAGR since 2004 vs 8.4% for S&P 500

Starbucks SBUX

Dominant global coffee brand trading at 22x forward P/E vs. 26x historical average

Pershing Square Holdings (fund-level annual review covering multiple portfolio companies: ADP, QSR, MDLZ, HHC, CMG, FNMA/FMCC, PAH, NKE, HLF, SPGI) PSH

Pershing Square has restructured to a smaller, investment-centric organization — 'returning to our roots'

Pershing Square Holdings (PSH) — portfolio review PSH

Returning to roots: smaller investment-centric team, reaffirmed core principles, growth from returns not AUM

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. ADP

Employer Services margins are 1,500-2,000 bps below potential vs. Paychex and peers

Herbalife HLF

Country-level 'pop-and-drop' patterns are the signature of a pyramid scheme reaching saturation

Howard Hughes Corporation HHC

HHC owns the best public-market analogue to Donald Bren's $15B Irvine Ranch MPC empire

Pershing Square Portfolio (multiple positions)

Core longs (QSR, MDLZ, CMG, APD, HHC) are high-quality businesses in mid-transformation with untapped margin upside

Multiple (PSH portfolio update)

Long-term track record intact: 503% cumulative vs S&P 163% since 2004 inception

Portfolio-wide update (Mondelez, Air Products, Restaurant Brands, Chipotle, Howard Hughes, Fannie/Freddie, Valeant, Herbalife short, Platform Specialty, Nomad, CP, Zoetis)

Mondelez EBIT margin of 15.4% sits ~1,200bps below Kraft Heinz's 27.6% — a fixable gap

Herbalife HLF

FTC complaint confirms Herbalife operates as a pyramid scheme

Herbalife Ltd. HLF

FTC findings satisfy the Koscot/Omnitrition/Vemma legal test for a pyramid scheme

Multiple (Pershing Square portfolio: MDLZ, APD, ZTS, QSR, CP, HHC, VRX, NOMD, HLF-short)

Mondelez EBIT margin of 13.1% is far below peers (Kraft Heinz 26.5%, Hershey 20.0%) and well short of 3G playbook results

Multiple (portfolio-level LP update: MDLZ, APD, ZTS, QSR, CP, HHC, VRX, PAH, FNMA/FMCC, NOMD, HLF)

Mondelez margin gap to peers (13% vs 17-26%) implies +600-700bps of optimized EBIT upside

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. VRX

Joseph C. Papa appointed Chairman and CEO of Valeant

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. VRX

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. VRX

Pershing Square portfolio (multi-holding LP update: MDLZ, VRX, APD, ZTS, CP, QSR, HHC, PAH, FNMA/FMCC, HLF short)

2015 was -20.5% but portfolio trades at substantial discount to intrinsic value

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Citron's 'next Enron' channel-stuffing claim is verifiably false; Philidor accounting is conservative

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Citron's 'next Enron' channel-stuffing claim is verifiably false; Philidor accounting is conservative

Herbalife Ltd. HLF

Herbalife pays multi-level royalties on unlimited downlines, violating China's pyramid-sales laws

Herbalife Ltd. HLF

CEO Johnson on video admits Herbalife participation is a 'lottery ticket' with 'pyramiding'

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Platform companies are undervalued because P/E ignores value from future acquisitions

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VRX

Traditional P/E ignores Valeant's 'Platform Value' from disciplined M&A capital allocation

Multiple (portfolio update: AGN, VRX, CP, APD, ZTS, HHC, QSR, PAH, FNMA/FMCC, HLF)

Allergan delivered 89% return as Valeant bid catalyzed auction ending at Actavis $242 vs. $128 cost

Herbalife HLF

Former distributors lost $5K-$45K each chasing promised income that never materialized

Multiple (PSH portfolio: AGN, HLF short, APD, CP, QSR/BKW, PAH, ZTS, HHC, FNMA/FMCC)

Concentrated activist strategy delivered 40.4% net returns in 2014 vs. 13.7% for S&P 500

Multiple (Pershing Square Holdings portfolio: Allergan, Herbalife, Air Products, Canadian Pacific, Restaurant Brands International, Platform Specialty Products, Zoetis)

PSH returned 40.4% net in 2014 vs 13.7% for S&P 500

Multiple (Pershing Square portfolio - annual update)

2014 net returns of 40.4% vs S&P 500's 13.7%, driven by Allergan (+19.1%), CP (+7.0%), and Herbalife short (+6.1%)

Herbalife Ltd. HLF

Herbalife is the largest and best-managed pyramid scheme in the world

Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac FNMA / FMCC

Reformed GSEs worth $23-$47/share vs $3.98 today — 6x to 12x upside

Allergan AGN

Valeant's Outsider-CEO model delivered 2,544% TSR (25x) in six years under Mike Pearson

Procter & Gamble PG

P&G earns $4 EPS today but should earn $6 by FY2016 at 24% EBIT margin

Herbalife Ltd. HLF

Herbalife distributors earn 10x more from recruitment than from retail product sales

Herbalife Ltd. HLF

Herbalife is a pyramid scheme: distributors profit by recruiting, not retail sales

Herbalife Ltd. HLF

Formula 1 is a $2bn 'brand nobody's heard of' — sales economics defy any genuine consumer demand

J.C. Penney Company, Inc. JCP

Ron Johnson (Target, Apple Retail) can repeat his retail magic at chronically mismanaged JCP

Burger King Worldwide Holdings BKW

Back best-in-class 3G management team retaining 70%+ equity

Canadian Pacific Railway CP

CP has the worst operating ratio of any Class I railroad while closest peer CN has the best

Lowe's Companies, Inc. LOW

LOW trades at 13.3x depressed EPS with ~8% FCF yield — cheap

Fortune Brands Home & Security FBHS

Orphaned post-spin-off stock — recovery optionality mispriced at $13

Hong Kong Monetary Authority / HKD-USD Peg

HKD peg forces Hong Kong to import ultra-loose U.S. monetary policy despite a vastly stronger economy

Family Dollar Stores FDO

FDO trades at same ~9x forward EBIT as Dollar General despite 37% performance gap

NRSRO Rating Agencies (Moody's, S&P, Fitch)

Rating agencies caused trillions in losses by rubber-stamping structured finance and bond insurers

General Growth Properties GGP

GGP is worth ~$20/share sum-of-parts ($15 PF GGP + $5 GGO) vs. $14 price — 43% upside by year-end

Mall REIT sector (long General Growth Properties) GGP

Mall REITs still trade at 7.8% cap rates vs. 6.3% Baa — a historically wide spread

Corrections Corporation of America CXW

CXW trades at a 12% cap rate vs ~7% for Health Care REITs with near-identical attributes

Realty Income Corporation O

Tenant base is mostly junk-rated discretionary retailers with high bankruptcy risk

General Growth Properties GGWPQ

GGP's assets materially exceed liabilities — this is a liquidity bankruptcy, not insolvency

Target Corporation TGT

Target board lacks senior operating experience in retail, credit cards, and real estate

Target Corporation TGT

Target trades at only 5.8x '09E EV/EBITDA while REITs trade 14.5x-35.7x — 22% of EBITDA mispriced

Target Corporation TGT

Target owns 95% of its buildings — more real estate than any big-box peer, worth $39bn replacement value

Wendy's International WEN

Wendy's is 93% a brand-royalty and real-estate business masquerading as a restaurant chain

Borders Group, Inc. BGP

Book superstore industry is misunderstood — Amazon risk is exaggerated and superstores have gained share

McDonald's Corporation MCD

McDonald's is fundamentally not a restaurant company — 78-86% of EBITDA comes from Brand McDonald's

McDonald's Corporation MCD

McDonald's real estate is worth ~$46bn, ~94% of enterprise value, but trades like a restaurant stock