Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck follow up
2015-08-01 · 63 pages

Herbalife Ltd. HLF

N 5 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 2 Craft
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The three reasons

  1. 1

    Herbalife pays multi-level royalties on unlimited downlines, violating China's pyramid-sales laws

  2. 2

    Total commissions exceed the 30% cap set by China's Direct Sales Regulations

  3. 3

    SEC filings misclassify China royalties as SG&A 'China Sales Employees' to hide pyramid economics

Primary demands

  • Chinese regulators should investigate Herbalife's marketing plan for violations of direct-selling and pyramid-sales laws
  • SEC should examine Herbalife's misleading disclosure classifying China royalty overrides as SG&A 'China Sales Employees' expense
  • Investors should recognize that China pro forma contribution margins mirror the rest of the world, undermining claims of a distinct China model

KPIs cited

China share of Herbalife worldwide net sales (2013)
~10% of worldwide sales, up from 6.1% in 2008
China net sales growth (2013)
69.3% year-over-year
China share of total net sales growth (2013)
25.6% of Herbalife's total net sales growth
Chinese law cap on distributor compensation
Limited to 30% of sales volume; Herbalife's Retroactive Credits alone total 30%
China reported Contribution Margin % of Net Sales (2013)
89.6% reported vs. 43.9% pro forma after adding back 'China Sales Employees' — pro forma mirrors 44.6% for rest of world
Preferred Customer entry fee
100 RMB (~US$16) paid to join, which Pershing argues violates Art. 14
Volume Points required to become Distributor
5,000 VP (~60,000 RMB / ~$9,800) in three months
China Sales Employees expense (2009 internal vs. 10-K)
$79,082,000 in internal model matches $79.1M reported as 'compensation to China sales employees'
Internal model royalty inputs for China
Rebate 25%, Royalty Override 15%, Production Bonus 7%, MH Bonus 1%, China Bonus 1%

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (7)

Notes

Single-country deep dive within the broader Herbalife short campaign (Ackman's thesis since Dec 2012). Argument architecture is essentially a legal brief: statute -> fact pattern -> 'VIOLATES' arrow slide. Rhetorical devices: (1) CEO/executive quote reels (Michael O. Johnson 'pop and drop', Des Walsh 'most regulated market', Goudis 'abiding by all local regulations') set up contradiction; (2) hand-drawn downline diagrams from Chinese distributor interviews act as visual smoking gun; (3) internal Herbalife financial model screenshots reconcile $79M 'China Sales Employees' line to 'China Royalties' line, arguing the SG&A classification is cosmetic. Presented jointly with OTG Research Group (Aaron Smith-Levin). Visual craft is basic — monochrome text boxes, yellow/green callouts, no data-viz polish. Narrative craft is the specimen value: textbook 'law-applied-to-facts' structure. Presentation Q&A channel: questions@factsaboutherbalife.com.