Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck initial thesis
2024-06-10 · 51 pages

Southwest Airlines LUV

N 5 Narrative
V 4 Visual
C 4 Craft
Original source ↗

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Southwest's outdated strategy collapsed margins from best-in-class 21% to worst-in-class 8%

  2. 2

    Insular leadership has ignored a decade of investor calls for change and missed 17 of 20 earnings

  3. 3

    New leadership and a modernized strategy unlock 67-87% share price upside ($28 to $49)

Primary demands

  • Significant Board change including new independent directors with external airline experience
  • Replace Executive Chairman Gary Kelly and CEO Bob Jordan with leadership recruited from outside the company
  • Retire the Executive Chairman structure
  • Launch a comprehensive board-level business review of strategy, costs, network, capital allocation and technology
  • Modernize commercial strategy (assigned seating, premium products, ancillary revenue)

KPIs cited

EBITDAR margin
8% in 2024E vs 21% in 2018 — 1,300bps decline, now worst of major airlines
Margin gap to best-in-class peer
~900bps below Delta in 2024E (vs leader in 2018)
EBITDAR ($B)
$2.4B 2024E vs $4.5B 2018 — down 48% while peers flat or up
Enterprise value
Down 44% since 2019 to $16B; aircraft fleet alone worth $17B (no value attributed to operations)
Total shareholder return
Bottom 5% of S&P 500 over 3 and 5 years; underperformed all major airline peers across all timeframes
Unit revenue (RASM) growth 2018-2023
11% vs 20-23% for AAL/DAL/UAL — worst in peer group
Unit cost (CASMx) growth 2018-2023
+30% vs 19-28% for peers; guided to further +7-8% in 2024 ($1.7B incremental)
Earnings event performance
Stock underperformed peers on 17 of last 20 significant earnings events
2024 EBIT consensus revision
Down 85% from $5.7B implied to $0.5B since management's initiative reaffirmations
Uneconomic flying
12% of Southwest domestic capacity on routes with <70% load factor in 2023 (vs 1-3% for peers)
Profit sharing
$110M in 2023 vs c.$901M potential under Stronger Southwest plan (+$790M for employees)
Annual free cash flow uplift
$3-4B of annual equity FCF at best-in-class margins

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (6)

Notes

Initial thesis deck for Elliott's 'Stronger Southwest' campaign (StrongerSouthwest.com microsite). Strong SCQA structure: legacy/glory days -> outdated present -> required change -> upside. Slide 29 is a textbook CEO-quote-contradiction grid (Bob Jordan calling quarters 'great' as consensus EBIT collapsed 85%). Slide 31 'Entrenched Views' uses checkmark-vs-quote competitive matrix (Delta/United/American all check, Southwest absolutist denial quotes). Aircraft-worth-more-than-EV framing on p18 echoes the McDonald's real-estate trope. Custom 'Stronger Southwest' brand wrapper with Southwest's blue/yellow/red palette is clever appropriation. Closing 'Next Steps' staircase (p50) sets a year-end-2024 deadline. Campaign ultimately succeeded: Bob Jordan stayed but Gary Kelly and most of the board were replaced via Sept 2024 settlement.