Contrarian Corpus
activist letter initial thesis
2024-06-10 · 3 pages

Southwest Airlines LUV

N 4 Narrative
V 2 Visual
C 1 Craft
Original source ↗

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Share price down >50% over 3 years; 2024 EBITDAR tracking ~50% below 2018 despite record industry revenues

  2. 2

    Insider leadership (CEO/Exec Chairman combined 74 years at SWA) has refused to modernize strategy and tech

  3. 3

    Board failed to hold management accountable after Dec 2022 meltdown — nearly doubled exec comp instead

Primary demands

  • Enhance the Board of Directors with new, truly independent directors with airline, customer experience and technology expertise
  • Upgrade leadership by bringing in new executives from outside Southwest
  • Undertake a comprehensive business review via a new management and Board-level committee to modernize strategy, cost execution and IT systems

KPIs cited

Share price performance
Down more than 50% over the past three years; below March 2020 COVID-shutdown levels
2024E EBITDAR vs 2018
2024 EBITDAR expected to be nearly 50% lower than 2018 levels
Negative guidance revisions
Seven negative guidance revisions in the last 17 months under CEO Bob Jordan
Unit costs (CASM)
Ballooning, with management guiding costs higher for 2024 and revising upward again in April
Unit revenues (RASM)
Lagging peers
Board/management airline experience
Zero directors with external airline experience; only 1 of 8 top executives has worked at another airline
Executive compensation
Board nearly doubled compensation of all key executives in the year after the Dec 2022 meltdown
Elliott position size
~$1.9 billion investment, ~11% economic interest

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (3)

Notes

Three-page cover letter accompanying the 'Stronger Southwest' presentation; this document is the letter only, not the appended deck. CEO quote contradictions: Jordan calling quarters 'great'/'strong' while guidance is cut, and management claiming 'absolutely committed' to cost control while raising cost guidance. Signed by John Pike (Partner) and Bobby Xu (Portfolio Manager). 77% upside target is stated without a valuation bridge in this letter — likely detailed in the accompanying presentation.