Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck initial thesis
2024-06-10 · 51 pages

Southwest Airlines LUV

N 5 Narrative
V 4 Visual
C 4 Craft
Original source ↗

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Southwest lost 50%+ of market value and EV is below the value of its aircraft alone

  2. 2

    From best-in-class to worst-in-class margins: 1,300 bps below 2018, 900 bps below peers

  3. 3

    Insular leadership has rigidly rejected industry-standard commercial innovations for 15 years

Primary demands

  • Significant Board change including new independent directors with external airline experience
  • Replace Executive Chairman Gary Kelly and CEO Bob Jordan with new leadership from outside Southwest
  • Retire the Executive Chairman structure
  • Form a new Board-level committee to conduct a comprehensive business review of strategy and operations
  • Modernize commercial strategy (assigned seating, premium products, basic economy, ancillary revenue)

KPIs cited

Total shareholder return (5-year vs S&P 500)
Underperformed S&P 500 by 144 percentage points over 5 years; bottom 5% of S&P 500
Enterprise value decline since 2019
Down 44% (from $28B in 2019 to $16B today) vs peers down only 5% on average
EBITDAR margin
8% in 2024E vs 21% in 2018; 1,300 bps decline; ~900 bps below peer best-in-class
EBITDAR (absolute)
$2.4B 2024E vs $4.5B in 2018 (-48%) while Delta, United, American all in-line with or above 2018
Unit revenue growth (RASM 2018-2023)
+11% vs Delta +21%, United +23%, American +20%
Unit cost growth (CASMx 2018-2023)
+30% (worst in peer group) vs Delta +28%, United/American +19%; guided +7-8% YoY in 2024
Share price 2024 guidance revisions
Revised guidance down 7 times in last 17 months
EBIT consensus decline since 12/31/2022
-85% by Annual Meeting; CEO claimed company was 'great' throughout
Earnings event share underperformance
Underperformed peers on 17 of last 20 significant earnings events
Profit sharing per employee
$11,157 in 2019 vs $1,555 in 2023 (down >$9,600 annually)
Analyst ratings
75% Buy in Dec 2022 fell to 20% Buy in June 2024; 16 downgrades and 0 upgrades since YE2022
December 2022 meltdown impact
Stranded 2M+ customers, 16,700 cancelled flights, $700M+ pre-tax loss, $140M record fine, 30%+ relative share underperformance
Executive tenure
Gary Kelly 38 years, Bob Jordan 36 years; 8 most-senior executives have only one with external airline experience (3 years)
Board independence
0 independent directors with airline operating experience; 7 of 12 independent directors recruited by Gary Kelly; lead director tenure 24 years
Hawaii inter-island unit economics
Southwest 2023: 47% load factor, $38 fare vs Hawaiian 2023: 74% load factor, $54 fare (36% lower load, 49% lower fare)

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (6)

Notes

Polished campaign with dedicated 'Stronger Southwest' microsite branding (StrongerSouthwest.com) and a yellow/blue color palette mirroring Southwest's own. Strong SCQA structure: Situation (legacy + scale on p.6-7), Complication (margin/EV collapse p.17-22), Question (more time won't fix p.27), Answer (board+leadership+review p.41-46). Memorable rhetorical devices: 8-row red downward-arrow scoreboard (p.10), exit-sign metaphor (p.27), 'Worst' shareholder survey grid (p.38), Herb Kelleher 'if you don't change, you die' quote weaponized against current management (p.8), and the +77% $28-to-$49 upside reveal (p.13). Heavy reliance on third-party validators (J.P. Morgan, Barclays, Cowen, Deutsche Bank, Melius, even Ryanair's O'Leary). Valuation is multiple-comparison only (peer EBITDAR x 4.8x); no DCF or sum-of-parts. Backed by 18 months of research, 130+ former-employee interviews, shareholder survey, and 2,000-person consumer study (p.5). Outcome: Bob Jordan was eventually retained but Gary Kelly stepped down as Chairman in October 2024 and 6 directors departed in a settlement — partial win — but at extraction time leave campaign_outcome as 'unknown'.