Contrarian Corpus
activist letter follow up
2015-08-10 · 7 pages

Yahoo! Inc. YHOO

Yahoo's Core Business is collapsing because of $550M of self-inflicted cost bloat; cutting costs and replacing the Microsoft search deal can restore profitability without touching Alibaba.

N 4 Narrative
V 2 Visual
C 3 Craft
Original source ↗

Thesis

Yahoo's headline stock performance masks a rapidly deteriorating Core Business: Adjusted Core EBITDA has fallen 57% from $1.34bn in 2012 to $582M LTM, margins have compressed from 32% to 11%, and Q1/Q2 2015 went free-cash-flow negative. Starboard argues the main culprit is not the PC-to-mobile shift but $550M of incremental SG&A and R&D since Q1 2012, compounded by ~$5.7bn of value-destructive acquisitions that have failed to produce revenue growth. The fix is within management's control: a $330-$570M cost-reduction program that simply reverses the bloat, a rationalization of unprofitable Display properties toward the handful that actually make money (Home Page, Search, News, Mail), and renegotiating the Microsoft search deal for an incremental $15-$20 per 1,000 searches. Absent urgent action, Starboard expects broader restructuring commitments.

SCQA

Situation

Yahoo's stock has been carried by its Alibaba stake, masking the real operating business — the Core Search and Display franchise that Marissa Mayer was hired in 2012 to turn around.

Complication

Core EBITDA has fallen 57% since 2012 and free cash flow just went negative; ~70% of the decline stems from $550M of self-inflicted SG&A/R&D bloat and failed acquisitions, not the mobile shift.

Resolution

Cut $330-$570M of costs to unwind the three-year bloat, shut unprofitable Display properties, halt acquisitions, and switch the Microsoft search deal to a higher-RPM provider.

Reward

Restoring the ~$550M of lost EBITDA plus incremental $15-$20 per 1,000 searches from a new search partner would reverse the Core Business's collapse and return it to profitability.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Core Business EBITDA has collapsed 57% since 2012 and Q1/Q2 2015 turned free cash flow negative

  2. 2

    ~$550M SG&A/R&D bloat explains >70% of the profit decline — not the PC-to-mobile shift

  3. 3

    $5.7bn spent on acquisitions and product dev has produced shrinking revenue and EBITDA

Primary demands

  • Cut $330-$570 million in Core Business costs to reverse the ~$550M SG&A/R&D bloat since Q1 2012
  • Rationalize unprofitable Display properties, halt value-destructive acquisitions, and refocus on profitable properties (Home Page, Search, News, Mail)
  • Renegotiate or replace the Microsoft search agreement to capture an incremental $15/1,000 mobile searches and $20/1,000 PC searches
  • Board to set aggressive budgets and hold management accountable for near-term profitability improvement

KPIs cited

Core Business Adjusted EBITDA
$1,338M in 2012 declining to $582M LTM, a 57% drop
Core Business EBITDA margin
Compressed from 32.6% in 2012 to 11.5% in 2015E
Core Business free cash flow
Turned negative in Q1 2015 ($18M) and Q2 2015 ($114M)
SG&A and R&D spend increase
Up >$550M annually since Q1 2012, explaining >70% of EBITDA decline
Cumulative acquisitions and product dev spend
~$5.7B over three years with revenue ex-TAC down 2% and Core EBITDA down 57%
YoY Core EBITDA decline Q1 2015
(63%) or ($127M) — worst quarter in the series
Proposed cost-reduction range
$330M to $570M, benchmarked to reverse the $550M bloat
Search RPM uplift opportunity
$15 per 1,000 mobile and $20 per 1,000 PC searches from switching search partner

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (4)

Notes

Letter is dated August 10, 2015 on the cover despite the filename suggesting 11.19.15 — cataloged with the letter's own date. Signed by Jeffrey C. Smith, Managing Member of Starboard Value LP; addressed to Chairman Maynard J. Webb (cc Mayer and Goldman). Classic Starboard operational-turnaround letter: no stake disclosed, no explicit target price, no peer comparison; argument is entirely a YoY self-comparison against the 2012 base. Strong use of management's own 'EBITDA levels are at a low point' quote to frame the contradiction chart on p.4. MaVeNS acronym (Mobile, Video, Native, Social) referenced as the growth narrative Starboard rejects.