Contrarian Corpus
activist conference presentation initial thesis
2011-09-14 · 13 pages

Yahoo! Inc. YHOO

Yahoo's Asian assets and cash alone cover its $14 price; with a new board and unlocked 40% Alibaba stake, intrinsic value is $20-32 per share — 40-122% upside.

N 4 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 3 Craft
Original source ↗

Thesis

At $14.26, Yahoo trades at just 2.6x EV/EBITDA — net cash, Yahoo Japan, and the 40% Alibaba stake alone are worth $10.93 per share, leaving core Yahoo valued at a punitive $3.33. Third Point, which has re-established a 5.2% stake, argues the failed board under Chairman Roy Bostock and recently dismissed CEO Carol Bartz has squandered both existing and potential value across the 'Bostock & Bartz era,' with shares flat while Google and the indices compounded. The fix is to overhaul the board (keeping only Kenny, Smith, and Yang), block any dilutive PE 'sweetheart' transaction, and let Yahoo's real assets — especially a reappraised Alibaba stake worth up to $15.28 per share as Taobao's 2012 GMV target of $157bn laps eBay plus Amazon combined — take the spotlight, delivering 40% to 122% upside to $20-32 per share.

SCQA

Situation

Yahoo is a global digital media franchise with 678 million worldwide unique visitors, a 40% fully diluted stake in Alibaba Group, a stake in Yahoo Japan, and net cash — yet shares have languished at $14.26 for six years.

Complication

The 'Bostock & Bartz' board has destroyed value versus Google and the indices since 2005, masks $10.93 per share of Asian stakes and cash behind sideshow drama, and may now entertain dilutive private-equity sweetheart deals to entrench itself.

Resolution

Overhaul the board except Kenny, Smith, and Yang, reject any non-pro-rata PE control transaction, install new senior management, and shift focus to revitalizing core Yahoo and monetizing the Alibaba stake, potentially via Jack Ma.

Reward

Intrinsic value is nearly $20 per share today (40% upside); over two to three years, Alibaba re-rating, a 7x core-Yahoo EBITDA multiple, and tax-efficient structures lift the sum-of-parts to $25-32 per share — 77-122% upside.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Yahoo trades at $14.26 vs sum-of-parts intrinsic value of nearly $20 — 40% upside

  2. 2

    Core Yahoo valued at just 2.6x EV/EBITDA vs a 7.0x intrinsic multiple

  3. 3

    40% Alibaba stake could re-rate from $5.24 to $15.28 as Taobao laps eBay + Amazon

Primary demands

  • Overhaul the Yahoo Board of Directors, retaining only David Kenny, Brad Smith, and Jerry Yang
  • Reject 'sweetheart' private equity deals that give preferential control without pro-rata terms to all shareholders
  • Do not dilute Yahoo shareholders to entrench the Board
  • Unlock the value of the 40% Alibaba Group stake and Yahoo Japan holding
  • Install reinvigorated senior management to revitalize the core Yahoo business

KPIs cited

Sum-of-parts value per share
Current $14.26 = Net Cash $2.49 + Yahoo Japan $3.21 + Alibaba $5.24 + Core Yahoo $3.33
Core Yahoo EV/EBITDA
2.6x current vs 7.0x intrinsic/peer multiple
Intrinsic value per share
$19.93 intrinsic, $25.16 mid-term, $31.71 mid-term + tax efficient
Alibaba Group stake value
40% fully diluted stake worth ~$7bn after tax ($5.24/share) at $25bn enterprise value; up to $15.28/share mid-term + tax efficient
Taobao 2012 GMV target
$157bn vs eBay $76.5bn and Amazon $82.4bn
Share price performance 2005-2011
Yahoo ~-65% vs Google/NASDAQ/S&P 500 all positive; post-Bartz dismissal +10%
Worldwide unique visitors
678 million (178 million U.S.); 284 million e-mail users
Audience growth
Yahoo properties audience +16% YoY in 2Q11; domestic search share +2 pts YoY to 16% in Aug 2011
China e-commerce consumer base
140m online shoppers (2010) to 520m (2015), 30% CAGR vs U.S. 140m to 200m, 7% CAGR
Third Point stake
5.2% of Yahoo outstanding shares

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Notable slides (5)

Notes

Delivered at CNBC/II Delivering Alpha Conference on 2011-09-14 with subsequent updates before distribution. Signature/author is 'Third Point' as a firm — no individual signatory on the cover, so author_name is null (Daniel Loeb led the campaign but is not credited on this deck). Coins the 'Bostock & Bartz era' as a memorable value-destruction shorthand. Opens with a governance statement slide (p.2) rather than a thesis hook — classic activist framing demanding board change before valuation pivot. Pie chart on p.4 is the rhetorical workhorse: $3.33 core Yahoo is the punchline.