Six Flags Entertainment Corp. SIX
Six Flags' owned real estate is worth more than its entire equity value; spinning it to a REIT buyer like VICI plus fixing the botched 2022 repositioning can double the stock.
Thesis
Land & Buildings argues Six Flags is materially undervalued because its owned theme-park real estate is worth more than the company's implied equity. New CEO Selim Bassoul's aggressive 2022 'premiumization' — raising prices and cutting perks — caused attendance to plunge 39% below 2019 while peers Cedar Fair and SeaWorld recovered EBITDA to pre-pandemic levels, punishing the multiple to a record-low 8.1x EV/EBITDA versus a 11.5x ten-year average. Underwriting 75% of the real estate at a 7.25% cap rate (well below 6% gaming comps) and the operator at 7x yields $31/share of NAV today and $53/share by 2024, versus a $21 stock. With VICI publicly naming theme parks as a target asset class and $50bn of firepower, plus GLPI, Realty Income, EPR and Blackstone as alternative buyers, L&B sees a clear path to a ~100% return within 18 months.
SCQA
Six Flags owns and operates 27 regional amusement parks on substantial owned real estate, trading at $21 — down ~70% from prior highs and ~50% year-to-date — at a record-low 8.1x EV/EBITDA.
New CEO Bassoul's 2022 'premiumization' (price hikes, perk cuts) drove attendance down 39% vs. 2019 while Cedar Fair and SeaWorld recovered, compressing SIX's multiple; yet the underlying real estate and parks remain intact.
Separate the real estate via an OpCo/PropCo structure — sell to or partner with VICI Properties (or GLPI, Realty Income, EPR, Blackstone) — while optimizing the repositioning to recover attendance in 2023.
L&B estimates $31/share NAV today (47% upside) rising to $53/share by 2024 (150% upside); real estate monetization alone supports $11/share and a doubling in 18 months.
The three reasons
- 1
SIX real estate likely worth more than entire $1.8bn equity market cap at 7.25% cap rate
- 2
VICI, GLPI, Realty Income, EPR and Blackstone are ready buyers for theme-park real estate
- 3
Optimized repositioning plus RE monetization could double the share price in 18 months
Primary demands
- Monetize Six Flags real estate via OpCo/PropCo separation, REIT conversion, or outright sale (in whole or in part)
- Optimize the 2022 'premiumization' repositioning to recover attendance and EBITDA in 2023
- Use real estate sale proceeds to pay down debt, buy back shares, and reinstate the dividend
KPIs cited
Pattern membership
Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.
Precedents cited
- Marriott spin of Host Hotels & Resorts (1990s)
- MGM Resorts spin of MGM Growth Properties (2016, later merged into VICI)
- L&B's own 2015 MGM campaign (RestoreMGM)
- SIX's own 2015-2017 REIT exploration with IRS comfort
- VICI acquisitions: Venetian, MGP, MGM Grand/Mandalay Bay JV
- GLPI, BX/BREIT, Hard Rock, Realty Income gaming real estate transactions
Notable slides (6)
Notes
Distinctive editorial design: Six Flags-branded cover using the company's logo and roller-coaster imagery, custom blue/gold/yellow 'flag' section dividers, and gradient chapter headers — unusually on-brand for an activist deck. Tone is explicitly constructive: L&B met with CEO Bassoul, expresses confidence in the turnaround, frames itself as 'increasingly optimistic' rather than adversarial. CEO is not cast as a villain; 2022 missteps are called a 'tuition cost' rather than cause for removal. No stake percentage disclosed in the deck. Author_name set to null — deck credits only the L&B firm; Jonathan Litt (firm founder) is not named on the cover or signature. Leverages MGM/Marriott spin precedents and L&B's own 2015 MGM campaign as playbook. VICI is named as the prime buyer with direct CEO/COO quotes about theme parks as 'corollary' to Las Vegas assets. SIX was subsequently acquired by Cedar Fair in 2024 (merger of equals forming Six Flags Entertainment Corporation).