Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck initial thesis
2013-09-01 · 21 pages

Bob Evans Farms, Inc. BOBE

Bob Evans trades at a conglomerate discount; spinning BEF Foods, monetizing 482 owned restaurants via sale-leaseback, and tendering at $58 unlocks ~$78.50/share.

N 4 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 3 Craft
Original source ↗

Thesis

Bob Evans Farms is a two-segment business — 560 family-dining restaurants and BEF Foods packaged goods — trading at 8.7x FY2014E EBITDA, a steep discount to both 9.1x family-dining peers and 9.9x packaged-food peers. Sandell argues CEO/Chairman Steven A. Davis has presided over 3- and 5-year under-performance of up to 41% and 150% respectively, including the $133mm write-down on the Mimi's Café disposal, yet received a 4-year contract extension. The proposed three-step unlock spins or sells BEF Foods at ~11x EBITDA for $558mm, monetizes 482 owned restaurant properties via sale-leaseback at a 7% cap rate for $723mm, and deploys 75% of the combined $1.08bn into a self-tender at $58/share. Pro-forma valuation yields a price range of $73-$84/share, averaging $78.50, versus $57.03 today.

SCQA

Situation

Bob Evans Farms is a $1.3bn-revenue conglomerate pairing 560 family-dining restaurants with BEF Foods packaged goods, owning the real estate under 86% of its restaurants and trading at 8.7x FY2014E EBITDA.

Complication

The mixed business model creates a conglomerate discount, the stock has lagged peers by up to 41% over 3 years and 150% over 5 years, and CEO Steven Davis was extended despite the $133mm Mimi's Café write-down.

Resolution

Separate BEF Foods via sale or spin-off, execute a sale-leaseback of the 482 owned restaurant properties, and deploy 75% of the $1.08bn proceeds into a self-tender at $58 per share.

Reward

Pro-forma valuation lands between $73 and $84 per share, averaging $78.50 — roughly 38% upside versus the $57.03 stock price as of 9/19/13, with further M&A optionality on the remaining pure-play restaurant company.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    Conglomerate discount: restaurants + packaged foods trade below both peer groups

  2. 2

    482 owned restaurant properties hide ~$723mm in real-estate value via sale-leaseback

  3. 3

    3-step plan (spin BEF, sale-leaseback, self-tender) yields ~$78.50/share vs $57 today

Primary demands

  • Separate BEF Foods packaged-foods business via sale or spin-off
  • Execute a sale-leaseback of the 482 owned Bob Evans restaurant properties
  • Use ~75% of the ~$1.08bn proceeds to fund a large self-tender at $58/share
  • Address CEO/Chairman Steven A. Davis accountability after years of under-performance

KPIs cited

EV / FY2014E EBITDA
Bob Evans 8.7x vs family-dining peers 9.1x and packaged-food peers 9.9x
3-year relative stock performance
Bob Evans has lagged family-dining peers by as much as 41.1%
5-year relative stock performance
Bob Evans has lagged peers by as much as 150.5%
Owned-restaurant count
482 of 560 restaurants owned (86.1%), implying $722.9mm sale-leaseback proceeds at a 7% cap rate
BEF Foods FY2014E EBITDA
$50.7mm at 11.0x yields $557.7mm in separation proceeds
Mimi's Café comp-store sales
Negative every year FY2008-FY2012 (-2.4% to -7.2%)
Mimi's Café disposal loss
Bought for $183mm in 2004, sold for $50mm in Feb 2013 — a $133mm loss
Farm Fresh Refresh capex
Capex rose from $51.3mm (FY2010) to $187.5mm (FY2014E) as 100% of stores are remodeled

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Precedents cited

  • Ralcorp acquisition at 12.5x EBITDA
  • Heinz acquisition at 14.3x EBITDA
  • Ruby Tuesday sale-leaseback at ~6.25-6.7% cap rates
  • Benihana, PF Chang's, O'Charley's and California Pizza Kitchen take-privates

Notable slides (6)

Notes

Initial public thesis from Sandell's Castlerigg Investments vehicle; 5.1% stake disclosed in the disclaimer. Classic three-step playbook: spin packaged-foods segment, sale-leaseback of restaurant real estate, self-tender. Cites equity-research anchors (CL King, Stephens) for the $800mm-$1bn real-estate value claim and Hillshire CFO commentary as M&A signaling. Villain framing is explicit: CEO Steven A. Davis named, 4-year contract extension flagged as reward-for-failure alongside the $133mm Mimi's Café loss. Deck is text- and table-heavy with minimal editorial craft; no cover-slide drama, no big headline visuals, but peer-gap Bloomberg charts and a sum-of-parts bridge do the argumentative work.