Contrarian Corpus
activist full deck follow up
2016-08-22 · 18 pages

Bob Evans Farms, Inc. BOBE

Bob Evans trades at $37 while its packaged-foods segment alone is worth $1.2-1.6bn; spinning off Restaurants leaves a pure-play BEF Foods parent worth $57-79 per share.

N 4 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 2 Craft
Original source ↗

Thesis

Sandell argues Bob Evans Farms (BOBE) is structurally mispriced because it bundles a growing, highly profitable packaged-foods business (BEF Foods, 23.4% EBITDA margins, $90.8M segment EBITDA, the #1 refrigerated side-dish brand at 49% share) inside a declining family-dining restaurant chain with negative same-store sales every quarter of FY2016. The conglomerate structure has almost no synergies and actively suppresses value: sell-side analysts cover either restaurants or packaged foods but not both, and new CEO Saed Mohseni is a restaurant operator with little packaged-foods experience. Applying Hormel's 14.5x or a packaged-foods peer average of 13.7x to BEF Foods implies $1.24-1.57bn, already exceeding the entire $1.07bn enterprise value — meaning the Restaurants business is being ascribed negative value despite wholly-owning 305 restaurant properties. A tax-free spin-off of Restaurants would leave a pure-play BEF Foods parent and drive pro-forma value to roughly $57-79 per share.

SCQA

Situation

Bob Evans Farms bundles a 527-unit Midwestern family-dining chain with BEF Foods — the #1 refrigerated side-dish brand at 50% dinner-sides share, $388M revenue, and 23.4% EBITDA margins — under a single corporate umbrella.

Complication

Restaurants post negative same-store sales under a new restaurant-only CEO; BEF Foods' value stays invisible because equity analysts cover either restaurants or packaged foods, never both, leaving BOBE orphaned.

Resolution

Execute a tax-free spin-off of Bob Evans Restaurants, leaving the existing parent as a pure-play BEF Foods packaged-foods company that can re-rate toward Hormel-style multiples.

Reward

At 12.5-14.5x BEF Foods EBITDA and 6.5-8.5x Restaurants EBITDA, implied per-share value is $57-79 versus $37.57 today — roughly 50-110% upside, with BEF Foods alone exceeding current enterprise value.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    BEF Foods alone may be worth $1.2-1.6bn — more than BOBE's entire $1.07bn enterprise value

  2. 2

    Conglomerate structure hides value: analysts cover restaurants or packaged foods, not both

  3. 3

    Tax-free spin-off drives implied per-share value to $57-79 versus $37.57 today

Primary demands

  • Separate Bob Evans Restaurants and BEF Foods into two standalone companies
  • Pursue a tax-free spin-off of Bob Evans Restaurants, leaving BEF Foods as the pure-play parent
  • Consider alternative structures: sponsored spin-off, Reverse Morris Trust, or spin-off of BEF Foods

KPIs cited

BEF Foods segment EBITDA margin
23.4% in FY2016 vs Restaurants at 12.1%
BEF Foods segment EBITDA
$90.8M in FY2016, approaching half of total segment EBITDA
BEF Foods share of company EBITDA
44% of FY2016 segment EBITDA despite 29% of revenue
Refrigerated side-dish dollar share
Bob Evans 49% vs Hormel 13%, Private Label 12%
Refrigerated side-dish dollar velocity
$7.38 for Bob Evans — selling 3x faster than Hormel ($2.22)
Repeat rate on refrigerated side dishes
Bob Evans 65% vs 45-51% for all competitors
Restaurants same-store sales
Negative every quarter of FY2016, reaching -3.5% in Q3
BOBE EV/FY2017E EBITDA
7.8x versus 8.9x restaurant peers and 13.7x packaged-foods peers
Packaged foods M&A transaction multiples
17.3x average EBITDA across five recent deals (2014-2016)
Implied value of BEF Foods at Hormel multiple
$1,317M at 14.5x — $249M more than BOBE's entire $1,068M EV

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Precedents cited

  • Hormel's transformation from meat protein to branded packaged foods
  • WhiteWave Foods / Danone (2016, 21.1x EBITDA)
  • Hillshire Brands / Tyson (2014, 16.7x EBITDA)
  • Diamond Foods / Snyder-Lance (2015, 15.6x EBITDA)
  • Applegate Farms / Hormel (2015, 18.0x EBITDA)
  • Boulder Brands / Pinnacle Foods (2015, 15.2x EBITDA)

Notable slides (6)

Notes

Part of Sandell's multi-year campaign on Bob Evans (began 2014). This 2016 deck is a refresher of the breakup thesis following the April 2016 sale-leaseback of 143 restaurant properties and the arrival of new CEO Saed Mohseni. Core argument is a clean sum-of-parts reveal: BEF Foods alone exceeds BOBE's entire enterprise value, implying Restaurants trade at negative value despite owning 305 properties outright. Tone is measured/analytical rather than confrontational — argues industrial logic and valuation gap rather than attacking management. Tax-structure slide (p15-16) is unusually thorough, citing the Willens Report to preempt tax-leakage objections. No explicit stake disclosure in the deck.