Contrarian Corpus
activist conference presentation initial thesis
2023-10-17 · 70 pages

GoDaddy, News Corp, Fortrea

Starboard pitches three ideas: News Corp should separate Digital Real Estate to unlock ~50% upside, GoDaddy should expand margins to 33%+, and Fortrea can hit 18% peer margins under Tom Pike.

N 4 Narrative
V 3 Visual
C 3 Craft
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Thesis

Starboard's 2023 Active-Passive Summit presentation covers three new ideas. At News Corp ($12B EV), the implied RemainCo ex-REA Group trades at just 4x EBITDA versus NYT at 15x+; separating REA Group and the Digital Real Estate assets could unlock ~$7B+ of value, implying ~50% upside to ~$33/share. At GoDaddy ($14B EV), management has missed its 2022 Investor Day commitments — revenue short by $500M and EBITDA short by $100M in 2024; Starboard argues that cutting bloated Tech & Development spend can push growth+profitability from 31% to 40% exiting 2024, delivering $10+ FCF/share. At Fortrea ($4B EV, CRO spun from Labcorp), 13% EBITDA margins lag the 18% peer median; CEO Tom Pike — who drove a 425bp margin expansion at IQVIA/Quintiles — can deliver 60-144% upside to $47-$72/share.

SCQA

Situation

Starboard uses the 13D Monitor Active-Passive Summit to pitch three new ideas: GoDaddy (small-business web services, $14B EV), News Corp ($12B EV global media portfolio), and Fortrea ($4B EV CRO recently spun from Labcorp).

Complication

All three underperform scaled peers — GoDaddy has missed its 2022 Investor Day targets, News Corp's non-REA assets are implicitly valued at only 4x EBITDA versus NYT's 15x+, and Fortrea's 13% margins lag the 18% peer median.

Resolution

Starboard urges GoDaddy to cut Tech & Development costs to reach 33%+ EBITDA margins, News Corp to separate its Digital Real Estate assets (REA Group and Move), and Fortrea to execute CEO Tom Pike's margin plan toward peer benchmarks.

Reward

GoDaddy can reach $10+ FCF/share at ~7x FCF multiple. News Corp offers ~50% upside to ~$33/share via sum-of-parts. Fortrea has 60-144% share-price upside ($47-$72) at normalized margins.

The three reasons

  1. 1

    News Corp ex-REA Group trades at just 4x EBITDA versus NYT at 15x+ — separation unlocks ~$7B+

  2. 2

    GoDaddy can lift growth+profitability from 31% to 40% by Q4'24 via Tech & Development cost cuts

  3. 3

    Fortrea's 13% EBITDA margins lag the 18% peer median; CEO Tom Pike drove +425bps at IQVIA

Primary demands

  • GoDaddy: cut Technology & Development spend and drive Adj. EBITDA margins from 28% exiting 2023 to 33%+ exiting 2024
  • GoDaddy: target combination of growth + profitability of 40% exiting Q4'24 to deliver $10+ FCF/share in FY25
  • News Corp: separate Digital Real Estate assets (REA Group + Move) from the remaining media portfolio
  • Fortrea: execute margin-expansion plan toward 18% peer median under CEO Tom Pike
  • Pursue CRO precedent-transaction optionality given M&A activity in the space

KPIs cited

Growth + Profitability (revenue growth + EBITDA margin)
GoDaddy 31% (FY23E) vs. scaled-tech peer median 39%; target 40% by Q4'24
EV / FY24E EBITDA multiple
News Corp ex-REA Group implied at 4x vs. NYT at 15x+
Adjusted EBITDA margin
Fortrea 13% FY22 (9% FY23 guide) vs. 18% peer median at comparable scale
Free Cash Flow per share
GoDaddy $7.25 FY23E; targeting $10+ by FY25
REA Group ownership
News Corp owns 61%; stake worth ~$8B vs. $12B total NWSA EV
Revenue miss vs. Investor Day target
GoDaddy expected to miss FY24 revenue target by >$500M and EBITDA by >$100M
Technology & Development as % of revenue
GoDaddy T&D expense grew from 16.3% (FY18) to 20.9% (Q2'23 annualized) while revenue growth decelerated
CRO market concentration
Top 7 CROs control >80% of market; Fortrea is #6 at 7% share

Pattern membership

Where this document fits across the library's 12 rhetorical / structural patterns.

Precedents cited

  • Tom Pike's margin expansion at IQVIA/Quintiles (+425bps, 2012-2016, 48% outperformance vs S&P)
  • New York Times Company trading at >15x NTM EBITDA as valuation comp for Dow Jones
  • Starboard's 2022 Active-Passive ideas (Salesforce +39%, Splunk +100%, Wix +12%) as track record
  • LabCorp/Covance, Thermo Fisher/PPD, ICON/PRA Health, EQT/Parexel precedent CRO transactions at 13-25x EBITDA

Notable slides (6)

Notes

Conference deck presented at 13D Monitor's 2023 Active-Passive Investor Summit (October 2023). Despite the filename emphasizing 'News Corp,' the deck is a three-idea TMT/Healthcare pitch covering GoDaddy, News Corp, and Fortrea with roughly equal weight (~15 slides each). Opens with a track-record victory-lap on prior-year ideas (Salesforce +39%, Splunk +100%, Wix +12%). Unusual for activist decks: Tom Pike is explicitly praised (not attacked), and his CEO quote is deployed as supporting evidence — not a contradiction. No named villain, no explicit closing-ask slide; deck ends on a Starboard logo page. No current stake percentages disclosed (Starboard's GoDaddy 13D filed Dec 2021 is referenced in a footnote only). Campaign phase tagged 'initial_thesis' because all three ideas are presented as new theses at this summit, though Starboard had owned GoDaddy since 2021.